WASHINGTON (AP) — One of the biggest indicators of how people will vote is their level of education. Voters who attended college are much more likely to support Democrats, while voters without a degree tend to go Republican.
When The Associated Press looked for places to investigate this issue, we focused our attention on Center County, Pennsylvania. The area is home to Pennsylvania State University, making it a classic blue dot in a red region.
But the county is attracting more college-educated people, and surrounding compact towns are turning from red to purple and purple to blue. Nothing is certain in this turbulent election year, but the changes could facilitate Kamala Harris counter Donald Trump’s margins in more rural areas. Here’s what we found in Center County.
A classic swing county swings in one direction
Center County has 160,000 residents in central Pennsylvania and has been a classic swing district over the years. But that has changed, as Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won in recent elections and Democrats maintain control of the county board.
The change is reflected in the educational data. A decade ago, 39.4% of residents had a four-year college degree or more. Last year it was up to 47.6%. County leaders are pushing to diversify the economy beyond Penn State, focusing on novel attractions like an Iron Man triathlon and developments like expanded health care facilities.
“Boomeranging” back to Center County
Mark Higgins, chairman of the Center County Board of Commissioners, said the region’s growth is driven by “boomerangs.” That means people who grew up or went to school in the county are moving back to start their families.
The cost of living is an crucial factor. People move to State College from larger cities because it’s more affordable, and others move from State College to surrounding cities because it’s even cheaper. The result is that the blue dot is growing in the district.
“You see an expansion of the university community and the economy,” said Ezra Nanes, the Democratic mayor of State College. “It affects all parts of the county.”
A large change has occurred in compact towns
Penn State is surrounded by a number of compact towns that have long had a conservative reputation. However, that is slowly changing.
Voters in Bellefonte, which has a population of 6,000, supported Trump in 2016 but supported Joe Biden in 2020. Once a struggling compact town, it has seen a wave of investment and newcomers that have brought more liberal policies.
However, the change is not everywhere. Philipsburg, with fewer than 3,000 residents, has not yet experienced this renaissance. The decline of coal mining has wiped out jobs in the city, and voters there chose Trump over Biden in 2020. “It’s a cute little town. It just needs help,” said Brittney Tekely, 31, who runs her own barber shop.
Campaigns to hunt for votes
Democrats believe they can come out on top in Center County. Their plans include engaging the left-leaning student body, which is vast but sometimes unresponsive during elections. There is also an aggressive advertising campaign in the area. “Centre County could have thousands more votes than we did in 2020 or 2016,” said Abbey Carr, executive director of the county Democratic Party.
Republicans are not writing off the campus population and have held events aimed at motivating right-leaning students. Kush Desai, the Trump campaign spokesman in Pennsylvania, said they are doing outreach at college football tailgates and are focused on winning votes from teenage men frustrated with the progressive culture. “A lot of people who are rubbing elbows are starting to pull away and side with us instead,” he said.
