Washington’s stubborn budget crisis took an ignominious place in history on Wednesday as it entered its 36th day, marking the longest government shutdown since the country’s founding.
It didn’t happen by chance.
Instead, various factors conspired to leave both sides deadlocked for weeks without giving an inch – a perfect storm of political risk-taking, conflicting ideologies and deep-rooted mistrust That leaves Congress scrambling to find an elusive solution before the economic damage gets worse.
The shutdown has soured on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers are frustrated, staff aren’t being paid and the mood is grim, even compared to shutdowns in years past. And while senators appear to be moving toward an agreement this week, progress is breakable and a breakthrough is far from certain.
“It feels different, looks different — it’s definitely in a different place,” said a former top Democratic aide who maintains close contact with Capitol Hill. “Everyone has a lot of reasons, but the mood is just somber.”
While there is no single factor driving the shutdown alone, President Trump’s decision to remain on the sidelines of the debate is perhaps the main reason for the historic deadlock, according to sources. While the president hosted bipartisan leaders at the White House on Sept. 29, two days before the shutdown, his focus has since largely shifted to foreign affairs, including two separate trips abroad. He has vowed not to negotiate with Democrats until the government reopens.
Trump’s distance from action is unique—presidents from Reagan to Clinton to Obama had actively engaged with the other side in search of deals during the shutdowns—but it is also strategic.
Trump described the shutdown as “unprecedented opportunity“Laying off federal workers and otherwise shrinking the size of government had already been a top priority of his second term. Two weeks into the impasse, he promoted the image of his budget chief, Russell Vought, as a kind of government-destroying “grim reaper.” Vought quickly accepted the role.
The hands-off approach has frustrated some Republicanswho see Trump as the only figure with the power to break the stalemate. And it is the furious Democrats who are accusing the president of being homeless while more and more people are suffering from the effects of the shutdown.
“Donald Trump and the Republicans cannot govern,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday. “These people are deeply unqualified.”
Public perception also contributed to the long standstill. In the early weeks of the funding crisis, Capitol Hill staffers and political observers marveled that, unlike in the past, the government shutdown was anything but the biggest news in the country.
Not only foreign policy made headlines, but also many other aggressive actions by the Trump administration. The president sent National Guard troops to US cities. His Justice Department brought charges against his political opponents. The Defense Department attacked foreign ships in international waters in the name of combating drug trafficking. The list went on.
These developments diverted attention from, and at times overshadowed, the shutdown news from Washington, where there was no progress to be reported. That reduced attention — and pressure — on lawmakers to negotiate a way to reopen the government.
Trump also took unilateral steps during the shutdown to ensure some federal programs and employees were paid, including military personnel and up-to-date mothers receiving nutritional assistance. The emergency funds won’t last forever, but in the brief term they have helped relieve certain pressure points that might otherwise have forced Congress to reach an agreement sooner.
An additional factor accompanying the shutdown was deep distrust between the parties. A trust gap is nothing up-to-date on Capitol Hill, but two factors have heightened tensions during the shutdown: the importance of Affordable Care Act subsidies in the fight and Republican funding moves earlier in the year.
Democrats say they need assurances on the Obamacare tax credits because they simply don’t trust Republicans to follow through on their promises on a program they have demonized for more than a decade. And Democrats have twice attacked Republicans in a partisan maneuver to claw back funds that had previously been approved on a bipartisan basis.
Republicans, meanwhile, certainly didn’t expect the shutdown to last this long.
They followed the exact same plan they successfully used back in March: Have the House pass a stopgap bill to fund the government at current levels, first approved under the Biden administration, without partisan poison pills — and challenge Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.) and Senate Democrats to reject it.
Schumer and nine other Senate Democrats voted at the time to keep the government open, angering Democrats who wanted to utilize the leverage to push back against the government. GOP leaders predicted Schumer would do so before the Sept. 30 deadline — or at least give up after a few days.
But Schumer was heavily criticized by the Democrats’ liberal base for his vote in March, and if he sided with Republicans a second time he would face an even more severe backlash, especially given the looming expiration of certain health care subsidies under ObamaCare. Schumer stood his ground, and Republicans underestimated how strongly Democrats were convinced.
“I honestly didn’t believe they would have the audacity to inflict so much suffering on people and have no regard for it,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said recently Politico said.
Schumer’s vote for the GOP spending bill in March gave Republicans ample reason to claim that Democrats were only reversing to show a disgruntled base that they were ready to take on Trump, especially heading into Tuesday’s off-year elections. This vigorous has helped GOP leaders remain steadfast in their position and demand that Schumer back down and reopen the government.
On the other hand, Republican-led legislation to expand subsidies — backed by Republican lawmakers in battleground districts — gave Democrats reason to say the issue is not partisan and must be addressed immediately. They portray Trump and Republican Party leaders as indifferent to the fate of the millions of Americans facing skyrocketing health care costs early next year.
In fact, the shutdown has given Democrats an opportunity to put health care — which they say will be a key issue in the midterm elections — front and center for weeks.
Still, getting Republican leaders to agree to an extension of increased ObamaCare subsidies is a lofty order. Trump unsuccessfully tried to abolish the entire law in his first term; no Republican voted for the bloated loans under former President Biden; and party leaders say ObamaCare created a broken health care system. Johnson faces pressure from the Conservatives to phase out the tax credits entirely.
During the shutdown, Republicans repeatedly pointed to dates they thought would be turning points — all of which came and went without Democrats making a move. First, it was the date the troops would miss a paycheck before Trump would transfer funds; Then it was the “No Kings” day of protests, which Republicans argued Democrats had been waiting for.
Now figures from both parties suggest Tuesday could be a turning point and that lawmakers will be more willing to find a way out after elections in Virginia, California, New York, New Jersey and elsewhere.
“We are confident that after today, Democrats will no longer be as worried about holding their line to appease the Zorhan Mamdani and Omar Fateh wings of their party,” House Majority Leader Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said at a news conference Tuesday, referring to Democratic mayoral candidates in New York City and Minneapolis, Minnesota. “And maybe, just maybe, at least five Democrats in the Senate will finally come to their senses.”
“I think the choice[s] will give someone some leverage,” the former Democratic aide reiterated. “Their feeling of ‘How much am I going to fight back?’ will change on Tuesday.
