WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump’s election as president for a second time and Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate could undo many of the national climate policies that most reduce global warming greenhouse gas emissions, according to climate solutions experts.
When they list measures that will make the biggest difference, it is consistent with the policies that Trump has announced as his goal.
These setbacks will come as more people die in heat waves, record amounts of climate pollution accumulate in the atmosphere, the United States has been hit by two of what could be its costliest hurricanes, and nations are set to meet in Baku, Azerbaijan next week for climate negotiations , have failed to take robust action to change these realities.
Here are some of the measures.
The Inflation Reduction Act, the country’s landmark climate law
This law is significant because it is expected to reduce U.S. emissions by about 40% by 2030 if it occurs as planned in the coming years.
Money is flowing into measures that replace spotless energy with filthy energy. This is done, among other things, by granting loans to entrepreneurs who build new solar and wind farms.
But it is not confined to that. It encourages geothermal energy developers and companies that capture carbon dioxide from their smokestacks and bury it underground. It creates incentives for the next generation of nuclear energy. It gives electric car buyers a $7,500 tax credit. People who buy their cars used can also get a credit, as long as they don’t earn too much to qualify.
In contrast, Trump has summed up his energy policy as “drill, baby, drill,” promising to dismantle what he calls Democrats’ “green new scam” and boost production of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal. the main causes of climate change.
He promises to eliminate wind power subsidies included in the groundbreaking 2022 climate law.
If Trump sets his sights on climate law, there are provisions that are likely safe and sound. One is a credit to advanced manufacturing companies because it is perceived as an “America first and pro-US business,” said David Shepheard, partner and energy expert at global consulting firm Baringa. Electric vehicle incentives are probably the most at risk, he added.
In a call Wednesday morning, Scott Segal, head of a communications group at law firm Bracewell LLP, which represents the energy industry, said the climate law is unlikely to be repealed.
Dan Jasper, a senior policy adviser at Project Drawdown, said repealing parts of the climate law could backfire because most of the investments and jobs are in Republican congressional districts.
Pollution from power plants
The most significant US rule to curb climate change caused by electricity generation in coal-fired power plants is also considered vulnerable. This Environmental Protection Agency rule, announced in April, would force many coal-fired power plants to capture 90% of their carbon emissions or shut down within eight years, Shepheard said.
By 2047, this is expected to save around 1.38 billion tons of carbon dioxide and tens of thousands of tons of other harmful air pollutants.
Industry groups and Republican-controlled states have filed legal challenges to a number of EPA rules, including this one, and Trump’s victory means the Justice Department is unlikely to defend them.
It is unlikely to survive under a Trump presidency, Shepheard said.
The United States has reduced carbon dioxide emissions primarily by replacing coal-fired power plants with spotless, renewable electricity, said Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University and chairman of the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that tracks countries’ carbon dioxide emissions.
“I hope we don’t lose sight of the benefits of clean energy,” he said. “It’s not just about the climate. It’s about our lives and our health.”
Limiting leaks of harmful methane or natural gas
The Biden administration has been under pressure to reduce one of the main pollutants that contribute to droughts, heat waves, floods and stronger hurricanes – methane, or natural gas. It leaks from oil and gas facilities, sometimes intentionally when companies find it too steep to transport.
The Biden administration has issued the first national rules on this matter.
Industry groups and Republican-leaning states have challenged the rule in court. They say the Environmental Protection Agency overstepped its authority and set unattainable standards.
The EPA said the rules were fully within its legal responsibility and would protect the public.
Fuel proficient vehicles
The Environmental Protection Agency has issued its toughest regulations on exhaust emissions from cars and trucks under the Biden administration.
While it is unclear who will lead the EPA under Trump, it is expected that the agency will likely begin a lengthy process to repeal and replace a number of standards, including the one on tailpipe emissions, which Trump incorrectly describes as a “mandate” for electric vehicles. Trump rolled I supported more than 100 environmental bills as president, and that number is likely to rise in a second term.
Trump has said that making electric vehicles will kill jobs in the auto industry and has falsely claimed that battery-powered cars don’t work in frosty weather and are unable to travel long distances. Trump toned down his rhetoric in recent months after Tesla CEO Elon Musk endorsed him and campaigned heavily for his election.
Nevertheless, industry representatives assume that Trump will try to ponderous down the switch to electric cars.
Drilling in the Alaska Refuge
Trump is almost certain to restart oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, continuing a decades-long partisan battle. Biden and other Democratic presidents have blocked drilling in the sprawling protected area, which is home to polar bears, caribou and other wildlife. Trump opened the area to drilling with a 2017 tax cut law passed by Republicans in Congress. No drilling has occurred at the refuge, although the U.S. Bureau of Land Management on Wednesday proposed a lease sale by the end of December that could lead to oil drilling. The sale is required under the 2017 law.
The transition to spotless energy and transportation will continue
Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax,” said he would also repeal Biden administration regulations to boost the energy efficiency of airy bulbs, stoves, dishwashers and showerheads.
Dan Jasper, senior policy advisor at Project Drawdown, said climate action will continue to advance at the state and local levels.
Zara Ahmed, head of policy analysis and science strategy at Carbon Direct, agreed. While climate foreclosure may occur at the federal level, she is bullish that states like California will continue to take the lead.
Clean Air Task Force Executive Director Armond Cohen said Wednesday that states, cities, utilities and companies that have committed to net-zero emissions will continue to work toward those goals and spur record installations of wind and solar energy.
Governors of both parties are also interested in expanding nuclear energy as a carbon-free source of electricity, Cohen said.
Trump has said he, too, is interested in developing the next generation of nuclear reactors that are smaller than conventional reactors.
Gina McCarthy, a former EPA administrator and Biden’s first national climate adviser, said Trump will not be able to stop spotless energy like wind, solar and geothermal.
“No matter what Trump may say, the transition to clean energy is unstoppable and our country will not turn back,” McCarthy said. Clean energy advocates are bipartisan, well-organized “and well-prepared to deliver climate solutions, stimulate local economies and advance climate ambition,” she said.
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McDermott reported from Providence, RI. Reporters Alexa St. John in Detroit and Becky Bohrer in Juneau, Alaska, contributed.
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This story was first published on November 6, 2024. It was updated on November 11, 2024 to correct an editing error on behalf of one of the contributing reporters. She is Alexa St. John, not Alexis St. John.
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