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In Pennsylvania, the Ukraine vote could prove crucial

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Vera Andryczyk is a registered member of the Republican Party in Pennsylvania, but as a Ukrainian-American, she is doing everything she can to campaign for Vice President Harris and re-elect the Democratic congresswoman from her district.

Foreign policy is typically a low priority in presidential elections, but Pennsylvania’s unique connection to and investment in U.S. support for Ukraine makes it a major focus – and focal point – of the November campaign.

Andryczyk is among the estimated 1 percent of Pennsylvania’s population that is of Ukrainian origin, a petite but significant number of voters in a state that President Biden won by fewer than 81,000 votes in 2020.

“I called for it at every fundraiser, at every social gathering, to keep telling them that not only can you not vote for it [former President] Trump, but you have to vote for the Democrat,” the self-proclaimed newborn 82-year-old said in a phone call with The Hill.

“Because this is a very, very close election and we – Ukraine, the United States, the world – cannot afford another term.”

The Keystone State is considered one of, if not the most crucial swing states in the 2024 presidential election, carrying the prize of 19 Electoral College votes. And Harris and Trump’s different positions on Ukraine are coming into focus.

In addition to the estimated 100,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Pennsylvania, Polish-Americans make up about 5 percent of the state’s population, and there are significant numbers of Americans with roots from Baltic states and other Eastern European nations who often express concerns about their homeland on the front lines of Russian aggression.

Far from being a monolith, these voters are generally busy in supporting the U.S. for Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia and are fiercely pro-democracy voters with family histories of hardship and oppression shaped by Nazi, communist and Soviet regimes.

Pennsylvania is also a major recipient of U.S. aid to Ukraine. Eight congressional districts are home to manufacturing companies that produce military equipment that either ships to Kyiv or replenishes U.S. stockpiles. benefits from the total of 121 billion US dollars issued in the US since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky singled out Scranton during his trip to the United States this week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly a munitions factory to thank the workers for their contribution.

But his visit sparked political outrage and condemnation from Republicans, who accused the war leader of “election interference” and supported Democrats at a critical juncture by appearing alongside the Democratic governor and the Democratic congressman who represents the district.

However, Republicans who supported Ukraine tried to downplay the scandal. Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick — an outspoken GOP supporter of Ukraine — said the controversy was “possibly a big misunderstanding.” after a meeting with Zelensky in Washington on Thursday.

“But we will get to the bottom of this,” Fitzpatrick added.

But the episode highlighted growing partisan divisions over U.S. support for Ukraine. Trump is increasingly mobilizing Republicans around his view that the U.S. is spending too much money supporting Ukraine, while his vice presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), is calling on Kiev to stop making land and security concessions to Moscow in the wake of the war.

Zelensky and Ukraine’s strongest supporters, including many Republican lawmakers in Washington, reject these positions. The Ukrainian president has publicly denounced Trump and Vance more recently.

This has further inflamed political tensions, with Trump criticizing Zelensky during a campaign rally in North Carolina, saying he had “uttered hateful slanders against your favorite president, me.” But Trump met with Zelensky in New York on Friday after releasing a seemingly complimentary text message from the Ukrainian leader in which he said: “I really want to hear your thoughts directly and firsthand.”

The partisan tensions are worrisome for Ukrainian-Americans who are actively promoting U.S. support for Kyiv, with a focus on maintaining and expanding bipartisan support to ensure continuity of American support.

“I think that there is undoubtedly bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress, both in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, and that is a bipartisan majority that is larger than on most other issues that Congress faces,” said Euguen Luciw, president of the Philadelphia regional branch of the Ukrainian Congressional Committee of America, which advocates for local and federal governments.

“The difficulty is how the executive branch handles this bipartisan relationship.”

Amid the controversy between Republicans and the Ukrainian government, Harris is campaigning on her support for Kiev. In a statement on Thursday, she argued that she was a “master” at “standing up against dictators and autocrats” and that “the Trump-Vance-Putin plan would sell out Ukraine.” Her campaign also said Harris helped bring allies together to aid Ukraine defend itself, a key part of President Biden’s legacy.

Leaders of Pennsylvania’s 800,000-strong Polish community issued a letter of support for Harris following the Sept. 10 presidential debate, citing the community’s influence by name while criticizing Trump’s hostility toward Kyiv and his deference to Russian President Vladimir Putin .

“Vice President Harris has a long track record of protecting our democracy here at home and standing up for our brothers, sisters, parents and grandparents in Poland – the same people Vladimir Putin wants to attack next if Ukraine falls.” read the letter.

Harris also held a one-on-one meeting with Zelensky on Thursday, separate from Biden’s meeting with the Ukrainian leader, and criticized Trump, without naming him, for his thoughts on how the war should end.

“There are some in my country who would instead force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory, who would demand that Ukraine accept its neutrality, and who would demand that Ukraine forego security ties with other nations,” said the vice president.

“These proposals are the same as Putin’s and we must make it clear that they are not peace proposals. Instead, these are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable,” she added.

However, it is not yet clear whether Pennsylvanians’ vote on the Ukraine issue in particular will aid Harris win.

Trump and Harris are largely neck-and-neck in the state, with Harris holding a 1.3 percentage point lead over Trump, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ Aggregation of surveys.

In a poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research, the candidates each had 46 percent Opinion poll Published this week, and a UMass Lowell and YouGov Opinion poll The poll released Thursday showed Harris up 48 percent in Pennsylvania, while Trump was close behind with 46 percent support.

When asked about their most crucial issue when deciding who to vote for, just 2 percent of Pennsylvanians said it was “international conflicts” in a recent Muhlenberg College study Opinion poll.

This was the same percentage of support that foreign policy and climate change received. Still, it came in ahead of violent crime, gun control and the Supreme Court, and just behind health care, which received 3 percent.

And in a face-off between Trump and Harris on foreign policy, 51 percent of Pennsylvanians said the Republican presidential nominee is most likely to “pursue a foreign policy that benefits people like you.” in a survey by Eurasia Group.

But with margins so tight, everything can change.

“Large segments of the Polish and Ukrainian population in Pennsylvania are so-called Trump Democrats who look at all of his policies — but being so open to Putin is likely undermining Trump’s support,” said former Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney (D). , a senior advisor at Nossaman.

“It is unclear whether Polish and Ukrainian Pennsylvanians are more concerned about the Russian invasion of Ukraine than the economy or immigration. But I can’t imagine Trump’s recent vitriolic comments about Ukraine, Zelensky and NATO helping his standing within these communities,” he added.

For Andryczyk, the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol by pro-Trump supporters was the catalyst for her resignation from Republican committee roles in her district. She was shocked by the attack on democracy, which had been a beacon of hope when her parents fled Soviet-controlled Ukraine, then under Nazi occupation, during World War II.

Trump’s criticism of Ukraine further solidified her vote for Democrats.

“I am still a Republican because I will vote for a person who embodies the principles of the Republican Party. But I will cross the line, and I will, and I voted for the Democrats.”

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