According to two recent polls, Kamala Harris’ popularity as a presidential candidate among Hispanic voters has declined sharply in recent years compared to Democratic candidates. Forbes/HarrisX survey Harris is tied with former President Donald Trump at 39 percent. The poll, conducted Friday, July 19, through Sunday, July 21, was conducted before Biden withdrew from the race. Harris is still a possible candidate in the poll of 2,753 registered voters with a margin of error of 1.9 points.
The record low popularity among Hispanics is reflected in a second Quinnipiac University surveywhich also gives Harris a 39 percent approval rating. The poll was also conducted July 19-21 with 1,257 self-identified registered voters across the country, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Among them, 542 were Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters, with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
🚨NEW SURVEY🚨
BREAKING NEWS: Another overnight poll, this time from Quinnipiac, shows Trump and Harris tied among Hispanics at 39%.
Context: This would be the Democrats’ worst showing among Hispanics ever, falling even compact of John Kerry’s record low of 53% in 2004. https://t.co/zTxFDd0YHS pic.twitter.com/bK924K8OWf
– Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) July 22, 2024
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In March New York Times poll Trump defeated Biden among Hispanic voters by 46 to 40. In 2020, Joe Biden received 66 percent approval among Hispanics in national post-election pollsa figure comparable to Hillary Clinton’s 65 percent in 2016. In contrast, the latest poll found Kamala Harris trailing Biden’s 2020 national numbers among Hispanic voters by 27 percentage points.
If Harris crosses the finish line with only 39 percent of the vote, that would be the mThe highest level of Latino support for a Democratic presidential candidate in history. This comes at a crucial time as the influence of Hispanics continues to grow.
According to the Pew Research CenterApproximately 34.5 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in the 2024 elections, cementing their status as the “fastest-growing racial and ethnic group in the U.S. electorate since the last midterm elections.” States that Increase in Latino voter turnout in 2024 compared to 2020 are California with 6.1 percent, Florida with 13.8 percent, Nevada with 15.5 percent and New York with 12.4 percent. Voter turnout in Arizona, Georgia, New Jersey and Texas will likely be similar to 2020.
Among the swing states Trump leads in Nevada and Arizona, two states with huge Hispanic populations that he did not win in 2020. Although Biden won the electoral college vote in 2020, he suffered a 4 percentage point decline in Nevada, where Latino men notably supported Trump. In the Silver State, Biden won 56 percent of the Hispanic vote and Trump 37 percent, with Hispanics overall making up 19 percent of the votes cast.
In a poll conducted shortly before Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the attempted assassination of Trump, nearly a third of Hispanic voters in Nevada were undecided between the two candidates. A poll by TelevisionUnivision from June 12 to 24 found that 33 percent of registered Latino voters supported Biden, while 30 percent chose Trump – a statistical neck-and-neck race given a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percent.
The poll found that 17 percent of Latinos were “likely” to vote for Biden, while 10 percent expressed a similar inclination toward Trump. In addition, seven percent said they would vote for another candidate, and four percent were unsure or undecided about their voting preference. That leaves 31 percent of Latino voters in Nevada choosing between the major parties’ proposed candidates at the time.
Harris’ unpopularity among Hispanic voters, which recent polls put on a par with the former Republican president, indicates a significant decline in her support compared to previous Democratic candidates. Going forward, Hispanic turnout in swing states will be critical, reflecting their growing influence and the potential for a significant and lasting realignment of voter demographics.
