There are Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Then there is the fourth and unspoken part of this equivocation equation. That is “polls.” I have never answered a pollster’s questions. In fact, I was called once recently from a number I did not recognize. After being called three times, I looked up the number. It was a pollster. Too tardy to answer the call. I did not have a chance to answer the question asked. It may have been that particular CBS poll.
“Most believe Trump is likely guilty of a crime after the trial in New York ends”
CBS News poll: Most Americans believe Donald Trump is definitely or probably guilty of a crime in his New York criminal trial. https://t.co/PJ5CTNh7QK
— CBSNews (@CBSNews) May 23, 2024
CBS polled 1,402 people. Out of a population of 336,000,000 people, polling 1,402 people seems like a pretty petite sample. Nevertheless, CBS pollsters (apparently) asked “the public” what they thought of the Trump trial. CBS reported it as follows:
Opinions vary widely: Almost all Democrats believe Trump is guilty, and about eight in ten Republicans say the opposite. Republicans are less sure of their opinion. While three in four Democrats say he is “definitely” guilty, only half of Republicans say he is “definitely” not guilty.
The public is divided on the question of how the jury will decide. About half of those surveyed expect the jury to find Trump guilty, the other half think the opposite. And the views of both sides are far from certain. For example, far more people say the jury will “probably” convict Trump than “definitely.”
You don’t have to dig deep to see that the poll results are useless wishful thinking. The sample was petite and the poll was conducted over a week, starting on May 14th. How many people were interviewed while self-confessed liar, self-confessed thief and convicted felon Michael Cohen was answering the prosecution’s questions? We don’t know. How many people were interviewed after Michael Cohen was exposed by cross-examination? We don’t know.
How many Democrats were surveyed? They were surveyed too many. How many independents? They were surveyed too many. How many Republicans? They were surveyed too few. Women were surveyed too many.
The poll results give us few relevant facts. The majority of respondents had no idea. The majority had “heard” little to nothing about the trial. Although 93 percent of Democrats said Trump was “guilty of a crime” (we still don’t know what crime), only 37 percent of Democrats claimed they had “heard” much about the trial.
What does that mean? It means that the expansive majority of Democrats surveyed blindly threw darts at the “Orange Man Bad” board.
There are also The:
TThe data include an oversampling of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education based on the American Community Survey and the U.S. Census’ Current Population Survey and past election results. The margin of error is ±4.4 points.
OK, CBS – not only did you ask 1,402 people the question “How are you feeling?” but you had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
No matter. CBS got its propaganda headline.
Most “Americans” think Trump is guilty!
No – sorry, CBS. You found about 780 people (give or take 30 people) out of a population of 336,000,000 who “think” Trump is guilty of a crime. You don’t know what crime – but any crime. Most of those 780 people have little to no idea what they are claiming, thinking or believing, and they have paid no attention to the trial other than “Orange Man Bad.”
Well done, CBS. This is the state of “journalism.”
