Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver’s presence on the ballot in key battlegrounds is raising concerns among some nervous observers that he could influence the election if it ends up being extremely close.
Oliver will be on the ballot next Tuesday in all seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all of which could hold the key to the White House as a battle between Vice President Harris and former President Trump comes to the point.
With Oliver’s closest rival, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., out of the race, some see the anti-establishment votes going to independents rather than libertarians – although it’s still unclear whether that would hurt Harris or Trump more .
“Libertarians and third-party candidates like Chase can change the outcome of elections that are razor-thin in swing states,” Lars Mapstead, a Libertarian candidate who ran against Oliver for the party’s presidential nomination this cycle, told The Hill this week.
At 39, Oliver has already made a political breakthrough in one of the most closely watched swing states. The Atlanta native ran for Georgia’s 5th Congressional District in 2020 and for the Senate two years later, leading to a drawn-out race between Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and his Republican rival Herschel Walker.
His vote total was high enough to send the two candidates into a runoff, a sign of his ability to influence the results. Oliver won 2 percent of support in that race.
Getting even half of that at the presidential level in Georgia could facilitate change the tide on Election Day. Polls show the state has a 1.4 percentage point gap between Trump and Harris, with Trump at 48.8 percent compared to Harris’ 47.4 percent, according to the latest average of 56 polls from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.
Oliver could also have an impact beyond Georgia. Running as a Libertarian — the most popular third-party bid in American politics — means he will run on all 50 ballots, including all battlegrounds where others have struggled.
Pennsylvania is the biggest gain for both main parties, and there is precedent for libertarians gaining ground there and in other blue wall states. In 2016, for example, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won nearly 150,000 votes in the state; in Michigan he earned more than 170,000. In the end, both states had only a minuscule margin to decide the results.
Some libertarians place Oliver in the same campaign group as Jill Stein, a doctor and Green Party candidate who has accused her of torpedoing Hillary Clinton’s candidacy against Trump in 2016. Although these parties are ideological opposites, some believe they will both contribute to a Trump victory. Especially since Kennedy is now no longer on the ballot in most polling places where they are competing.
“If many of the remaining RFK supporters vote for RFK or Oliver or Stein anyway, as long as they don’t vote for Harris, all is well for Trump,” said a Libertarian politician who previously ran for governor in a blue state.
“Republicans may be concerned because they want more votes and/or want to suppress third parties. But the Trump campaign shouldn’t worry,” the source said.
Oliver’s pitch focused on freedom and an anti-establishment ethos. As President Biden struggled in the race against Trump, Oliver, who is an openly gay millennial, focused on bringing about a generational change from the incumbent while also dealing with Trump’s legal plight.
“I am under 80 years old, I speak in full sentences, I am not a convicted felon,” Oliver said before Biden named Harris as the Democratic nominee. “It’s a very low bar, but I managed to overcome it.”
He has since received a message to differentiate himself from Harris, particularly on economic issues, as the vice president herself tries to make a kitchen table pitch in the final days of the race. Oliver has proposed abolishing the Federal Reserve entirely, which he said would facilitate cut bureaucracy in Washington and stabilize the country.
He also recently addressed the rising cost of homeownership, a large issue for Democrats where voters have expressed frustration and argued that the government is restricting buyers’ freedoms.
“You don’t really own your house because you pay property taxes, and if you don’t pay those property taxes, the government can seize the house that appears to be yours,” Oliver said during a third-party candidate debate this month.
Other issues where the libertarian finds a “less is more” style effective include health care and the environment, where he shares common interests with Kennedy. Some Democrats say they envision voter overlap in swing areas where voters can’t easily get or afford essentials, and see government as an additional obstacle.
That message could resonate somewhere in Wisconsin, where Trump is less than half a percentage point ahead of Harris in the latest polls. In the Badger State, which has a enormous share of white, working-class voters, Kennedy and Oliver will be on the ballot, as will Stein and progressive scholar Cornel West.
“Wisconsin voters could be persuaded to vote for the libertarian platform of environmental protection and healthy eating,” said Hassan Martini, a Democratic strategist and executive director of No Dem Left Behind.
Democrats have targeted Oliver more as part of the larger group of non-Harris candidates whose vote corners they believe will facilitate Trump. A coalition of progressive groups released a modern seven-character campaign ad Tuesday that covers all battlegrounds and targets so-called “curious third-party voters” and working-class people.
Aside from economic differences, Oliver’s other biggest difference from Harris and Trump – his opposition to Israel’s role in the war in Gaza – could further facilitate him gain influence in states with sizable Arab American and Muslim populations, such as Michigan.
Trump posted anti-war notes in his final speech to voters, pointing out that the United States has not been involved in any foreign wars during his time in office. Oliver also believes a low-key approach is crucial to winning over voters who have grown weary of the country’s long-standing involvement in international conflicts.
Mapstead, who ran against Oliver, said “interventionism” is one of the areas where “the Libertarian Party is moving the Overton window.”
