Democratic strategists and their allies in the mainstream media have been screaming about degenerating support among black and Hispanic/Latino voters for several years.
The leisurely but steady decline has been caused in part by the progress Donald Trump has made in both communities. In particular, the Hispanic community has shifted the way they vote not only in presidential elections but also in congressional elections, which we saw, for example, in some 2020 and 2022 elections in Texas, Florida and New Mexico.
Needless to say, this has led to much moaning and gnashing of teeth, with the “usual suspects” insultingly viewing the changes as primarily the result of voters they now say are easily fooled.
SEE ALSO: MSNBC’s Katy Tur ventures outside the bubble and finds that not all Latino voters think alike
They can dig up as much as they want to understand what led to the noticeable changes, but the numbers don’t lie. And as we prepare for the last full month before the November election, there is undoubtedly recent panic at Kamala headquarters about the decline in support for Democrats in the Hispanic community, according to recent polls revealed an even bigger decline this election cycle:
However, that lead has fallen to the lowest level for Democrats in the last four presidential elections, one said recent national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Overall, the poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost some ground among Latinos, at a time when these repeat voters are more likely than the general electorate to cite the economy and the rising cost of living as a top priority. On both issues, Latino voters give Trump the edge, but the majority of them prefer Harris because of his temperament, competence and the mental and physical health necessary to be president.
[…]
While Harris’ 14-point lead is an improvement over President Joe Biden’s standing when he was at the top of the ticket, it is still smaller than previous leads enjoyed by Democratic presidential candidates in 2012 (by 39 points). and 2016 (50 points). and 2020 (36 points), according to NBC’s consolidated polling data from those past cycles.
Watch NBC News numbers expert Steve Kornacki explain the following data:
NBC POLL: President Trump has made a 19-point gain among Latino voters since 2020.
“Four years ago we said Donald Trump had made inroads with Hispanic voters – that suggests he continues to do well.” pic.twitter.com/LJRmJrRz7M
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 29, 2024
What’s behind this Latino voter decline for Democrats? Men and younger Latinos pic.twitter.com/AhsLLHU6wD
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) September 29, 2024
With these numbers, it’s critical to note that while Harris still has a 14-point lead over Trump among Latino voters, in a battleground state with minority voters, it only takes a percentage point or two of shift to completely change the game .
The bottom line here is that we do it every election cycle see more Latino voters go to the polls. We also see increasing attraction among Latino voters to Republican candidates in these cycles.
That Democrats are having to compete for these voters more than they have in decades confirms two critical things: that more and more people in their normally reliable voting blocs are fed up with “woke” and that Republican persistence is paying off. However, it remains to be seen whether it will bear fruit in November.
As always, stay tuned.
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