We’ve been watching the polls and they all seem to be in President Donald Trump’s favor at this point.
It’s not challenging to see why this might be the case, as Kamala Harris can’t seem to formulate clear plans and simply has a track record of failure. Their latest game is to call Trump “Hitler,” and that seems to be backfiring for them. That means she’s saying that instead of offering people something helpful. And it’s an venerable song that Democrats haven’t liked in the past. It scares voters away instead of helping them.
The numbers show it. We’ve written about HarrisX/Forbes, the Wall Street Journal poll, and CNBC. Then there was even a neck-and-neck race in the NYT/Siena poll, but Trump is ahead by one point in the overall field. This resulted in a tie in the Real Clear Politics average of the statewide popular vote.
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Now, with more novel polls, it has gone even further. Even polls that some consider “liberal” show ties in the national vote. HINT, Emerson.
Great start to the election for Trump this morning. TIPP and Emerson show Trump is tied in the national race and has a lead compared to their previous polls.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 26, 2024
And even CNN has it tied at 47, with Republicans ahead by 3 points in the general congressional numbers.
🇺🇲 LAST NATIONAL POLL: CNN/SSRS
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stone: 1%
🟪 Other: 2%Latest poll (9/22) – 🔵 Harris +1
——
General ballot
🟥 GOP: 48%
🟦 DEM: 45%
——
Crosstabs
• Men: Trump 51-45%
• Women: Harris 50-44%
—
• Dem: Harris 93-5%
• GOP: Trump 92-7%
• In the:… pic.twitter.com/4WvKd1ZcHJ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024
In the crosstabs, the Hispanic numbers for Trump are high, and the “income under 50,000” means it’s the people who aren’t opulent who vote more for Trump.
Then there’s Emerson, tied at 49.
NATIONAL SURVEY
2024 presidential election
Harris 49%
Trump 49%
1% someone else
1% undecidedhttps://t.co/2nJXZAmIRB pic.twitter.com/VDGpVMOOgR— Emerson College Poll (@EmersonPolling) October 26, 2024
So I think it’s fair to say that there is enough evidence that he could win the popular vote too.
How is that possible? According to people like CNN’s Harry Enten, the numbers come from increasing numbers in states like California, Florida, New York and Texas.
The RCP now has Trump ahead by 0.1 in the national vote.
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 26, 2024
He is still at the top in all contested states and stands at 0.9.
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 26, 2024
If true, he would have 312 electoral votes.
Again, if we take into account the bias of the Electoral College and how they have performed in previous years, anything less than +2 for Harris would be a win for Trump.
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 25, 2024
Cross your fingers and go vote.
