It’s strenuous to believe we’re just hours away from official Election Day, but yes, we’ve finally made it this far.
In North Carolina, there has been clear excitement on the Republican conservative side since early voting began on October 17, with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s push for Republicans to take advantage of early voting increasing the number of early votes for the Party boost not observed in previous election cycles.
The difference was so pronounced that it caused a real panic within the Harris-Walz campaign team, which was aware from previous elections that early voting was usually the strength of the Democrats, not the Republicans. Additionally, there was great concern on the Democratic side about North Carolina’s black electorate, which was lagging behind but was catching up some floor in the final days of early voting.
READ MORE: The ‘warning sign’ in North Carolina that’s giving Kamala Harris nightmares
North Carolina had 17 days of early voting, which ended Saturday. Here are some demographic data points you can apply from the early voting numbers locally:
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Independent voters cast the most ballots, followed by Republicans. Democrats are well behind where they were at the same point in 2020. #ncpolChange in voter turnout from 2020 to 2024:
D: -266,200
R: +31,448
U: +110,109 pic.twitter.com/hnbCu8uJM0— Andy Jackson (@andyinrok) November 4, 2024
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The electorate in 2024 is significantly older than in 2020. This shows the difference between younger and older voters. #ncpol
18-35: -77,000 (-1.1%)
65+: +133,000 (+3.8%)
It’s also whiter than 2020.
White: +52,000 (+3.0%)
Black: -101,000 (-1.7%)
Not reported: -106,000 (-2.1%) pic.twitter.com/ZhjF1LRBRs— Andy Jackson (@andyinrok) November 3, 2024
Race for President
Here’s more Info/analysis by Jim Blaine, an avid number cruncher and former chief of staff to Senate leader Phil Berger (right):
▶️UNAs overtook REPs on the last day and EV “won”.
▶️EV’s story is that DEMS is about 270,000 voters miniature of 20
▶️GOP leads DEMs with about 40,000 EV
▶️Comparing 24 EV to 20 EV, GOP has a net advantage of ~300,000 over DEM (GOP up ~30,000 from 20 + Dems down ~270,000 from 20)
▶️Our models break the historical EV pattern of DEM dominance dating back to 2008 and suggest Trump will be on par or have a very slight lead in the combined letter and personal EV space
▶️The GOP has between 30,000 and 60,000 more Election Day voters and high-propensity voters who didn’t vote than the Democrats
▶️Dems have between 60,000 and 100,000 more low-propensity voters who didn’t vote than GOP
▶️Black voter turnout has fallen in terms of pure votes and the proportion of electric cars
▶️Democrats need to reach low-turnout voters on Election Day to give Harris a chance to win North Carolina
Donald Trump, JD Vance and their surrogates have issued a lot of time in key precincts, both before and during early voting, which undoubtedly contributed to the augment in EV numbers for Republicans.
This is where former President Trump gathers today – swing county in battleground North Carolina (also Governor Cooper’s home county) – Nash County has voted for the presidential winner by fewer than 500 votes in the last three elections #ncpol #Election2024 #Vote @ABC11_WTVD pic.twitter.com/l0zgUsqRFS
— Tom George (@TheTomGeorge) October 30, 2024
Of course, a lot of the data we’ve seen from the various states, including North Carolina, has been evaluated with the idea that most, if not all, of the D and R camps will stay with their respective political parties when voting caste .
But it’s significant to remember that in the South there is still a portion of registered Democrats who vote Republican. While it’s unclear exactly how many in North Carolina would have voted for the Trump-Vance ticket, had Democratic early voting turnout not been where they wanted/needed it, Democrats only had a few on Election Day Losing a thousand votes from Democratic candidates to Republican candidates could potentially spell disaster.
On a related note, veteran Democratic political consultant Thomas Mills explainedOverall, independent voters are “older, almost half over 55, which means they are probably pretty heavily Republican.” As a reminder, as of this writing, there is essentially a three-way tie when it comes to voter registration:
For party registration compared to the last party 2020 %s:
We have a novel leader: NC Unaffiliated Voters as a total percentage of all early votes.
Essentially having a three-way tie is unprecedented in North Carolina’s early voting patterns.#ncpol #Election2024 pic.twitter.com/gWEDcKLW5H
—Dr. Michael Bitzer (@BowTiePolitics) November 3, 2024
First Congressional District Race
The other race to watch in North Carolina that has gigantic national implications is the First Congressional District race (in eastern North Carolina), which I’ve written about extensively before. This is the only House race in the state considered a “restlessness” in part because of recent redistricting.
The nominees are first-time Rep. Don Davis (D) and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout (R). While the district’s demographics have changed due to redistricting, there is still a huge black population and Democrats are counting on it to make the district a home again for Davis. Buckhout, on the other hand, is backed by Trump and is trying to turn a seat that has been blue since 1883 red.
But Democrats have something to worry about considering that in every congressional race, the two lowest voter turnouts were District 12 and District 1:
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The congressional districts with the highest voter turnout are the 4th (Triangle) and the 11th (Mountains). The two with the lowest values are 12th (Charlotte) and 1st (Northeast). #ncpolI will post a more detailed data report on the Locke homepage later today.https://t.co/lbXJVE9UN9 pic.twitter.com/Ym21AX5aLp
— Andy Jackson (@andyinrok) November 4, 2024
Additionally, a reliable Republican source pointed out to me that compared to 2020, the 2024 electorate for the novel 1st Congressional District will be 10 percent fewer Democrats, five percent more Republicans (that’s a 15 percent swing), five percent more Unaffiliated, and six percent includes fewer Black voters through early voting.”
If they can’t make up ground on Election Day, Democrats may lose this seat and, with it, potentially any chance of regaining control of the House.
In that context, what we’re seeing in this county could be an indication of how the state will fare in the presidential election, as data analyst Kyle Kondik noted in a Contest to Watch op-ed Piece for the New York Times:
A Davis loss would be a blow to Democrats’ hopes of a majority and would be consistent with a Trump victory in North Carolina, while a Davis victory – especially if the margin isn’t so narrow – could suggest that the problems are of Democrats with black voters were overestimated.
As the aged saying goes, it ain’t over ’til it’s over (no matter how many false narratives the MSM want to spread). In the meantime, if you haven’t already, do your thing and vote!
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