As RedState has reported, the Pennsylvania Senate race has become very intriguing in recent weeks. The first debate took place and GOP candidate Dave McCormick put in a robust performance against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, whom he portrayed as a rubber stamp Biden-Harris and a potential Kamala Harris-Tim Walz administration.
Additionally, Casey himself bizarrely even ran an ad expressing his support for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on the issues of China tariffs and ending NAFTA. This was a robust signal, as my colleague Bonchie noted, that “Casey believes Trump will win the state.”
READ MORE: Casey plays as a Trump supporter and that tells us everything about Pennsylvania
And with two weeks left until Election Day, we’re learning that McCormick’s full-throttle effort has paid off, as Cook Political is now moving the race to a toss-up, with McCormick leading the way to close the gap in the polls close than that Main reason:
Cook says McCormick’s closing of the loophole and Casey’s recent ad showing he sides with former President Trump on trade and tariffs are two of the main reasons for the change.
“While public polls in the Keystone State still show Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show it is now a margin of error race, with Casey having a narrow one “has a statistically insignificant lead of one” and two points,” according to the Cook Political Report Jessica Taylor wrote.
“Although many of the fundamentals are still slightly in Casey’s favor, this race is now so close that it belongs in the Toss Up category rather than the Lean Democrat bracket alongside Arizona and Nevada, which are clearly more difficult for Republicans competitions have become,” she said.
Bloomberg Radio called the news a “big deal” and “remarkable”:
“BIG DEAL!”: Bloomberg reports on Cook Political Report turning Pennsylvania Senate race into a TOSS-UP.
“This contradicts a narrative we have heard this cycle.” pic.twitter.com/3r2HAbqMFe
— McCormick War Room (@TeamMcCormickPA) October 21, 2024
The change certainly buoyed the McCormick campaign, which tweeted the following earlier Monday:
Pennsylvanians want CHANGE. And we will deliver it.
Help us beat Bob Casey ⬇️https://t.co/BuQfmaHWHS https://t.co/g528eiOUMt
— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) October 21, 2024
Earlier this month we noticed the polling gap narrowing and wrote about it. In fact, McCormick had gotten close enough to Casey Opinion poll Giving the incumbent nightmares, but in most polls McCormick still trailed him beyond the margin of error.
But that changed in mid-September, so we now have a possible nail-biter in the Senate race on Election Day in the Keystone State. In fact, McCormick recently had a one-point lead AtlasIntel surveythe first lead he has ever had against Casey in the polls. In her last survey a month ago, Casey had done this got up by two points.
There has definitely been a substantial change in this race, but whether that trend will continue as we get closer to the substantial day remains to be seen. Whatever the case, let it be known that McCormick fought tooth and nail to defy all odds against the incumbent three-term senator, a former state treasurer and comptroller whose father, Bob Sr., is a former governor of the state is.
As always, stay tuned.
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