There is a seismic shift in New York politics. Maybe it’s because the Democratic Party is shifting its Overton window further and further to the left of Fidel Castro. Maybe it’s the election of Kamala Harris as the disastrous 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. It could be a lot of things, but the fact is: Democratic voter registration is dwindling in the Empire State, and that doesn’t bode well Democrats there or across the country.
There are cracks in the blue wall.
Between 2020 and 2024, Democratic registration fell 7% in New York City and 4% across the Empire State, the latest sign of dissatisfaction with liberal politics that some experts say is fueling a nationwide shift to the right.
According to the elections board, Democrats saw a 258,612 drop in registrations in the city from November 2020 to November 2024, when 3.4 million voters were registered for the Democratic Party.
That accounted for much of the 271,322 decline in party registration statewide, as the GOP saw a modest 2% gain, or 67,483 registered voters statewide — bringing the Republican Party’s total to just over 3 million, according to the numbers.
According to the data, there were 4,912 additional registered Republicans in the city, for a total of 573,644.
The recent elections saw postponements across the country. Donald Trump swept through the Rust Belt states and smashed the Democratic Blue Wall like the Kool-Aid Man. Several key demographic groups are increasingly leaning Republican — and many members of those demographic groups live in New York.
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New York did well for Kamala Harris in the presidential election, but the drop in registration numbers is starting to have an impact, even though Democrats still have a lead over Republicans. The decline is begins to narrow the elections.
President-elect Donald Trump received 44% of the vote in blue New York, while Vice President Kamala Harris received 56% of the vote, the highest number of votes for a Republican candidate in 36 years. Democrats Screening is carried out nationwide through the carnage of losing the White House and both the House and Senate to the Republican Party.
In 2022, Democrat Kathy Hochul won the governor’s race by just 6 percentage points – 53-47% over Republican Lee Zeldin. Zeldin, a former member of the House of Representatives, is now Trump’s nominee for secretary of the Environmental Protection Agency.
In the 2024 presidential election in neighboring New Jersey, Donald Trump came within five points by Kamala Harris. This is remarkable; In 2024, New Jersey was close to becoming a swing state, whether due to the populist appeal of Donald Trump or the leftward drift of the Democratic Party.
New Jersey.
New York will, of course, remain a blue state unless things change much more than anyone can imagine. But remember: As recently as 1984, New York went Republican in Ronald Reagan’s 49-state landslide victory. But the changes in New York are still likely to make Democrats nervous. A miniature shift could tip the balance in the state Legislature and could even tip the scales in the next gubernatorial election if the GOP picks the right candidate.
This Thanksgiving weekend was chilly, with a weather system dropping snow and ice across much of the northeastern United States, but that’s not why Democrats in the Empire State are getting goosebumps today.
