Following the brutal assassination of former President Donald Trump in Butler County, Pennsylvania, on Saturday, there was widespread agreement that the attack would politically benefit him and detract from President Joe Biden.
That is a cynical assessment, especially in delicate of the number of deaths and injuries, even if the former president himself fortunately escaped even more stern injuries. But we live in a politically highly explosive world and are in the middle of a highly explosive election campaign.
The polls following the incident are now being published and as expected reflects a boost for Trump.
A narrow majority, including some who did not vote for him, say Trump’s words in the days since the assassination have been more unifying than divisive. Voters feel the same about Mr Biden’s response also to the tragic events.
But it is Trump with the growing advantage in the vote. Trump has a five percentage point lead nationwide and three in the key swing states. To put that national lead in context, it has been 20 years since a Republican presidential candidate won the nationwide popular vote and over 30 years since a Republican won by more than five percentage points.
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Trump leads! First poll after the assassination shows major swing in Trump’s favor
That note about “putting it all in context” is significant. There are still three and a half months until the election, and given the rollercoaster ride we’ve been on so far, it would be extremely naive to expect that there aren’t a few more surprises in store, but it’s still notable – especially given the level of contempt and outright hatred that a significant portion of the electorate feels for Trump. The irony is that the left has thrown everything in the wrong direction. And he throws the kitchen sink at the man, and yet he always gets up, raises his fist in the air and keeps fighting.
I share this observation not only as a conservative Republican who wants to vote for Trump in November. This is the feeling that many expressed in recent days, including those who decided not in the Trump camp.
Mark Zuckerberg’s unexpected reaction to Trump’s assassination attempt
CNN’s Van Jones gets forthright: “The last time I was at a convention
“It felt like Obama 2008”
VAN JONES: “A bullet couldn’t stop Trump. A virus just stopped Biden.”
“The Democrats are falling apart. The Republicans are coming together.” pic.twitter.com/QDfCXaIVty
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 18, 2024
Given the assassination attempt on him and a highly successful week at the RNC that culminated in Trump’s acceptance of the nomination on Thursday night, the polls reflect an understandable upward trend for the former president.
Today’s model update. A lot of polls have come in since yesterday and we are seeing an unmistakable upswing for Trump, who is now up almost 4 points in our national polling average. https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/6o8L3VKWSI
– Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 19, 2024
The question, of course, is whether this attitude will last until November 5 and will also be reflected in the (physical) ballot boxes when voters can finally cast their votes.
