We’ve been inundated with polls, and even though so many people hate them because they’re wrong so often, for political junkies and those of us who fear an American future under President Kamala Harris (Even typing hurt), they are all we have.
And yet the polls simply don’t provide any clarity about this election. Simply put, it could go either way:
The latest New York Times/Siena College Battleground poll for the 2024 race shows that the election will be close for just a few days in battleground states before the election.
Former President Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. Michigan and Pennsylvania are tied between the two candidates, according to the poll.
“Too close to make a decision,” Siena Research said in a social media post about the survey.
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign show a dead heat, with Harris making gains along with late-movers in the Sun Belt while the Rust Belt tightenshttps://t.co/9klUN8AHcc pic.twitter.com/ofGsrCkhUA
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2024
The numbers are confusing and comfort both sides, depending on what you look at:
In Arizona, the only state where Trump has a lead, the former president leads Harris by four points, 49-45.
Harris now has a one-point lead at Georgia (48-47), two points at North Carolina (48-46), three points at Nevada (49-46) and two points at Wisconsin (49-47).
The poll comes just two days before what promises to be one of the closest elections in recent memory, with the New York Times/Siena poll not the only one showing tight margins.
Will it be a Trump failure, an outcome I would love but can’t honestly say will happen? I certainly hope so:
🚨 BREAKING: Nate Silver’s election model and national polling averages suggest Trump has an 85 percent chance of winning Tuesday’s election.
Referendum:
🔵 Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
🔴 Trump: 47.6%ELECTIVE COLLEGE QUOTES:
🔴 Trump: 85%
🔵 Harris: 14.6%DISTRIBUTION: This is because… pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
Related: Exclusive: Trump leads Harris 48-47 in final 2024 Kaplan poll on gender turnout.
Pick your poison: At this point in the cycle, you can find a poll that says pretty much everything you want to see. Kamala will dominate, some say:
Predicted distribution of the Pennsylvania mail vote on October 29th:
🔵Harris 60.0% (+22.2)
🔴Trump 37.8%Estimated vote: 24.7%
Trump needs 54.2% of the remaining votes to win(Related to @poll_fair forecast model)
2024 postal margin: D+25
Democrats 57%
Republican 32%
Independent 11%… pic.twitter.com/f99RQJ30fJ— PollFair (@poll_fair) October 31, 2024
My own opinion: The polls have significantly underestimated support for Donald Trump in the last two election cycles. In 2016, just a day before the election, the geniuses at Reuters had failed Hillary 90 percent chance of winning. How did that work, Hills?
What I hope and pray for is that the American people will raise their voices and say that socialism is a failed ideology, that wokeism and progressivism will tear our country apart and will be its downfall if it is combined with the Kamala Harris/Der Nancy Pelosi/Barack Obama/Gavin Newsom path we have chosen.
It almost sounds silly at this point, because I suspect most of our readers have already voted or intend to. But we need to say it over and over again until we’re blue in the face – get yourself and everyone you know to the ballot box.
We have to save a country.
