In the second part of RedState’s ongoing series, we look at the shape of the 2018 (and 2017) elections to determine who will control the United States Senate in the coming years.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and other senators gather for a final vote on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Aug. 3, 2017. After last week’s collapse of the GOP health care bill due to opposition within Republican ranks, the Senate moved quickly this week itself when the House confirmed a fresh FBI director, sent President Donald Trump the Key Veterans Health Act and approved a series of lower-profile nominations that were held up by Democrats. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
There will be Class I Senate elections this year and next, as well as a special election to fill vacancies. Currently, the only vacancy that can be filled in a special election is the Alabama seat left vacant by Jeff Sessions.
Class I is intriguing in that the Democrats have won substantial in the last two meetings of this class. As a result, Democrats have almost exhausted their number of seats:
Of the 34 seats, 25 are de facto held by Democrats (we will not pretend that Angus King and Bernie Sanders are really independent), and 9 by Republicans (including the seat in Alabama). This is absurd. Given the lack of gerrymandering in the Senate, there is no way it would go that far. Democrats were very lucky in Class I, but they may have missed out this cycle.
Let’s do the math. The seats are not divided into 43 R-23 D, which means Republicans need just 7 for a majority (thanks to the Vice President’s tiebreaker), while Democrats need 28 seats for 51 votes.
Now that the seats will be increased, most are unlikely to change parties. Safe places are: Alabama (Sessions/Strange), California (Feinstein), Connecticut (Murphy), Delaware (Carper), Hawaii (Hirono), Maryland (Cardin), Massachusetts (Warren), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Mississippi (Wicker) , Nebraska (Fischer), New Mexico (Heinrich), New York (Gillibrand), Rhode Island (Whitehouse), Tennessee (Corker), Texas (Cruz), Utah (Hatch), Vermont (Sanders), Washington (Cantwell), and Wyoming (Barrasso). These are 19 seats that are unlikely to change hands, which will break the 12 D and 7 R seats.
This means that with protected Republican seats (Alabama, Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming), Republicans are actually starting to have a majority. That’s right, Democrats need to run the table and also win one of the Republican-controlled states to gain a majority.
But OK, forget about most of it. What if they just want to win seats to regain the majority in 2020? Let’s take a look at the remaining seats and the number of seats won by the parties last time:
Arizona: Jeff Flake (right) won 49-46 last time replacing Jon Kyl and is under solemn pressure this time around. This seat may be lost by the Republican candidate.
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) won 55-42, but the 75-year-old must run in a Republican-leaning state. If Republicans choose a good candidate there, he may lose.
Indiana: Joe Donnelly (D) won 50-44 as the establishment, with libertarians united against RedState favorite Richard Mourdock, but as the Republican Party has become anti-conservative, that conflict may not matter this time. Donnelly is one of the weakest incumbents and may not even be a favorite for re-election.
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow (D) won 59-39, but that was before Trump managed to win the state. A candidate (like Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie) who can tap into those same feelings can find a way to win.
Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) won 55-39 after Todd Akin shot his own candidacy in the face and Republicans were manipulated by Public Policy Polling enough to keep him from withdrawing. It’s unlikely she’ll be that lucky again. He may win state, but he’s beatable.
Montana: Jon Tester (R-State) went 49-45 in the rural state, and just being in the midterms this year could be enough to knock out the incumbent.
Nevada: Dean Heller (R) won his special election 46-45 in a state that has been extremely competitive lately. The choice between Heller and primary opponent (and perennial loser) Danny Tarkanian may not give Republicans much hope of retaining the state.
New Jersey Bob Menendez (D) won 59-39 and Governor Christie is destroying the party’s reputation in the state, but Menendez himself is on trial. This often hurts the candidate.
North Dakota: The state leans heavily toward the Republican Party, but Heidi Heitkamp (D) won 50-49. She should be beatable in the semi-finals.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (Germany) defeated newborn Josh Mandel 51-45. Once again, if the establishment actually supports the Republican, perhaps the party will win this time.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. (Germany) won 54-45 and probably should win re-election, but like Michigan, the Trump factor suggests nothing is out of reach.
Virginia: Tim Kaine (Germany) defeated George Allen 53-47. It’s a swing state and if Republicans unite, they can win. But Trump’s wing of the party is now sulking and may hand the governor’s race to Democrats this year.
West Virginia: Joe Manchin is (not) popular, but his party is not popular in West Virginia. Not popular at all. He’s in a similar place to where Mark Kirk was at Illinois in 2016.
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) only won 51-46, and like Michigan and Pennsylvania, the Trump factor puts the state in question more than ever before. The right candidate, given the turnout in the midterm elections, could take her down.
All in all, with 11 Democrats and 2 Republicans in the battlefield, Democrats winning seats in this election is somewhere between unlikely and impossible. Republicans may be able to thwart this, but I really doubt it.
In fact, if they manage to win this battleground 8-5 (possible, but unlikely given that some seats are very marginal for them), Republicans could gain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. This would be a historic outcome in the mid-term if their party were in the White House, but two consecutive waves of First Class for Democrats have made it a real possibility.
