Multiple sources report that a military coup may be underway in Damascus. The Republican Guard is reportedly engaged in combat with a division of the Syrian Army. Normally the Republican Guard is the regime’s protective force, but the situation in Syria is so confusing that it is challenging to say. According to speculation, the putschist belongs to Assad’s inner circle.
What is compelling is that a coup is underway in Damascus by Hassan Louka, Assad’s general security chief and Assad’s superior, to remove Syria from Iran’s sphere of influence and turn more towards the Russians. Possibly a Russian-sponsored coup. pic.twitter.com/449OmW9O0g
— RomanMeehar (@MeeharRoman) November 30, 2024
Take what it’s worth.
Syrian state television has just gone off.
There are reports of a coup in Damascus. Gunshots can be heard in this video. Game-changing events unfold when they are true. Assad remains out of the country. pic.twitter.com/KCw5nLisrc
– Firas Maksad (@FirasMaksad) November 30, 2024
🇸🇾 There are reports of a possible coup attempt in Damascus, Syria. Clashes between the Syrian Republican Guard and the 4th Division of the Syrian Arab Army (Assad’s forces) are reportedly taking place in the Syrian capital, more specifically in the Kafr Sousa district of Damascus.… pic.twitter.com/utzDEk3U0n
– Conflict Dispatch (@ConflictDISP) November 30, 2024
This is just another in a series of signs that Bashar al-Assad’s regime is in its final days.
Yesterday Aleppo fell after a 72-hour offensive; see Assad loyalists and Russians in stormy retreat after surprise rebel offensive on Aleppo. To put it in context, Aleppo has been controlled by Assad’s forces since 2011. Today two more major Syrian cities fell victim to the insurgents: Hamah and Homs.
If the reports of Hamah’s fall are correct, the opposition forces are already halfway to Damascus. Assad’s best forces are said to be in Damascus, but giving up so many defensible points in the long term is not a viable strategy. It invites a siege and the closure of the city. pic.twitter.com/IEfcQX4v83
– John Jackson (@hissgoescobra) November 30, 2024
If you want to know more or less how this football game ends, here is a map.
If rebels take Homs and then Al-Qusayr south of it, they will have split the regime in Damascus from its Alawite strongholds along the coast. pic.twitter.com/zypSoheeub
— Druze Saher (@DruzeSaher32) November 30, 2024
The fact that Assad and his family were in Moscow while Putin attended a conference in Kazakhstan further fuels the fire. Many members of Assad’s family are reportedly holed up in the United Arab Emirates.
Well-placed sources say #Assad stays in #Moscowwhile much of his family and close allies are also abroad – in #Russia & The #UAE.
This adds a stunning additional perspective to the collapse of the North #Syria.
— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) November 30, 2024
There is a report of a plane arriving from Moscow overnight, which some interpret as a sign of Assad’s return. I think it is very unlikely that Assad would return to Syria under these circumstances.
A Russian jet is landing in Damascus tonight. Syrian President Assad has probably returned from Moscow pic.twitter.com/HaI73La78Q
— Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 30, 2024
Conclusion
The insurgents’ breakthrough toward Damascus and the Syrian army’s inability to rally do not bode well for Assad. The original interpretation that the offensive took place while Assad was out of the country as a sign that the regime was caught off guard now seems to me to be a mistake. Assad was in Moscow with his family while the Russian foreign minister and Putin were out of the country. So it was clearly not a state visit. It looks like he knows what’s coming. Should a coup occur in Damascus, there is a high probability of success and attempts will be made immediately to reach an agreement with the insurgents. What happens next remains anyone’s guess.
