MILWAUKEE – Senate Republicans were in top form after President Biden’s collapse on the debate stage in Atlanta – but they soon found themselves faced with polls showing Democratic incumbents ahead in every single swing state except Montana.
The polls showed the Democratic Senate candidates doing better than the beleaguered Biden in their respective states, sparking concern among Republican lawmakers that former President Trump may not have a large enough lead in the Senate races.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines (R-Mont.) says the Democrats’ lead in key states like Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is simply a matter of the name of the incumbents.
Daines points out that Republican candidates in Arizona and Michigan are polling closer to their Democratic opponents in races for open seats.
But the stubborn fact remains that Democratic Senate candidates have been well ahead of Biden for months, suggesting that while voters have a indigent opinion of Biden, that view does not carry over to Democrats in general.
Two surveys by The New York Times/Siena College found that two Democrats – Senators Bob Casey (Pennsylvania) and Tim Kaine (Virginia) – outperformed Biden by 14 and 15 percentage points in their respective states.
The latest public polls reflect the sobering reality check that Republican senators experienced when they attended a special briefing on the 2024 political landscape at NRSC headquarters in Washington last week.
“We’re going to go forward as if we’re 5 points behind, because right now that’s what the polls are showing. But we realize that these races are getting tighter around Labor Day and the finish,” Daines said, noting that 68 of the last 69 Senate races have mirrored the outcome of the presidential election. Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) re-election victory in 2020 was the only exception.
“That’s always a concern. You’re always worried,” he said of the possibility of that trend reversing. “That’s why there’s an intensity and work ethic at the NRSC and among our candidates right now like never before.”
A Republican senator who attended the meeting said that a mix of internal and high-quality public polls showed Montana Republican candidate Tim Sheehy leading by just three points over Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), even though Trump is leading Biden by 21 points in the state – a lead also reflected in the average of The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polls.
And the source said party strategists had privately acknowledged that Sheehy might even be “a little off” but expressed confidence that Republicans who ultimately defeat Tester on Election Day would come out on top.
The senator said polls also showed Republican candidate Bernie Moreno trailing Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) by 3 points, even though Trump is 10 points ahead of Biden in the Buckeye State. However, the Hill/DDHQ average puts Brown about 6 points ahead.
But in Ohio, as in Montana, Republican strategists believe Moreno can catch and even overtake Brown as his name recognition rises thanks to huge spending on political advertising.
Pennsylvania is another warning signal for Republicans in the Senate.
“In Pennsylvania, Trump was ahead by 4 or 5 points, and [Senate GOP candidate] David McCormick is 7 points behind,” the source said of the Republican Senate poll.
Daines dismissed the concerns, arguing that the numbers would reflect early summer poll results and lead to a closer outcome in the coming months.
“I just don’t put a lot of emphasis on it. There’s still a lot of time to define the Democratic incumbents, which hasn’t happened yet. That’s coming,” Daines said, arguing he was encouraged that the races were within reach.
Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate, expressed concern earlier this year that Trump could beat Biden in Ohio so clearly that Republican voters might not be motivated to show up at the polls for Moreno and other candidates on the lower ballots.
“I’m actually worried about Biden doing so poorly in Ohio, which is obviously good for the presidency. But I want people in Ohio to actually vote, and if the perception — rightly — is that Biden is getting trounced in Ohio, you worry about the turnout of our voters. If the turnout of our voters is lower, Trump will still win, but it could affect some of the lower ballot voting,” Vance told The Hill in May.
“So I believe it is our job as the Republican Party of Ohio to keep people engaged,” he said.
Moreno downplayed Brown’s lead in the Ohio Senate race, describing it as a reflection of his greater recognition among voters after three terms in the Senate.
“I was drawing with crayons when Joe Biden was running for public office,” Moreno said. “It’s a name recognition factor. Once people know who I am, it’s going to be pretty good for me. I started the campaign last April, my poll numbers were 4 percent, with a 5 percent margin of error. So theoretically I could have been minus 1 and ended up winning. [the GOP primary] by 18 points.”
A Democratic aide said internal Democratic polls showed Brown with a 6-point lead over Moreno.
Asked about the disparity between Trump and the Republican Senate candidates, Daines said the polls reflected the power of the incumbent.
“Wherever an incumbent – a Republican incumbent – like Ted Cruz and Rick Scott runs, the Trump number and their own number are virtually the same. Where there is an open seat, like in Michigan – Michigan is the best example of this – there is a virtual tie at the Senate level when Trump is two votes ahead,” Daines said.
“You have [Democratic] Incumbents in those states where our challengers are a little behind Trump’s numbers. That’s a function of name recognition. It’s early days. I think we’ve found that May-July polls aren’t typically indicative of what happens in November,” he said.
“What we’re seeing in terms of the trends from 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 is a move away from ballot splitting,” he said of the trend in Senate elections over the past four presidential terms, which has been closely tied to the results at the top of the ballot in swing states.
The stability of the Democrats’ lead in the Senate in the polls since April has reassured Democratic lawmakers who are worried about Biden’s chances of success as a candidate.
A Democratic senator who questioned Biden’s chances of winning in November pointed out that Biden’s political problems were largely circumscribed to his own candidacy, acknowledging that it was uncertain whether Democratic incumbents would do as well in the polls if Vice President Harris replaced Biden as the nominee.
“Biden’s problem is that voters think he’s too old, but they don’t think that about Tester or Sherrod,” the senator said.
Daines also added that if the election were held today, Trump would win a “landslide” victory and triumph in the swing states.
Democrats’ Biden themes were evident Monday during an event in the host city of the Republican National Convention, when Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) campaigned alongside Senator Cory Booker (D-Wyoming) and avoided mentioning the president, even when reporters pressed her afterward.
According to fresh YouGov surveyBaldwin is 7 percentage points ahead of Republican Eric Hovde – a stark contrast to the presidential election, where Trump is 5 percentage points ahead of Biden.
The Wisconsin Democrat stressed that she still believes the state will be a close race in November, but attributed her current strength in the polls to her “presence” across the state.
“I listen to the concerns of the people of this state and then I fight for them, across party lines,” she said, adding that she was skeptical that there would be many campaign splintering in the fall.
Booker put it even more clearly, saying her support was based on her ability to bring funds and projects to Wisconsin.
“Why are people in this state supporting her more than perhaps other candidates on the ballot? It’s because she’s done a good job over the last decade … for this state,” Booker said.
A GOP official with knowledge of internal polls says Baldwin’s lead is consistent mirrored public pollsalthough the gap between her and Hovde is sometimes within the margin of error.
A second Republican strategist stressed that while the wide gap between the Democratic incumbents and Biden is a cause for concern, it is likely to narrow in the coming months.
“It’s definitely something that everyone involved in the Senate race should be concerned about,” the strategist said. “But it’s not an existential crisis.”
