The battle for Senate seats is expected to reach a climax in the coming weeks as the campaign enters a fresh phase and voters tune in more after Labor Day.
Republicans have long been considered favorites to recapture the upper house, but the fact that Vice President Harris replaced President Biden has made the playing field even more confusing for both parties.
As the weeks and months have come to an end, the number of contests has also intensified – with Montana and Ohio likely to be the deciding factors for both parties.
While the GOP had hoped to pick up more seats, those chances have shrunk. Even factoring in Harris’s lead, Republicans still have a 70 percent chance of winning the chamber, according to DDHQ.
Aside from West Virginia, where the election has been decided for months, these are the five seats that are likely to see an electoral swing:
Montana
It’s straightforward: If Republicans win Montana, they regain control.
The ruby-red state has been the top priority of Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the Senate Republican campaign team – and for good reason.
He personally recruited Tim Sheehy to run against incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D), and all signs are pointing in Republican favor.
Several polls in recent months suggest that Sheehy is in the lead. The average of the polls from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) has him ahead by 3.5 percentage points.
A Republican official said a recent internal poll showed Sheehy up four percentage points, and Democrats said they suspect Tester’s decline is only in the low single digits.
On Friday, DDHQ gave Sheehy a 73 percent chance of winning.
But the large question for both parties revolves around former President Trump’s lead over Harris in Montana.
In 2020, Trump led Biden by 16 points, and Democrats say if that lead stays the same, Tester has a chance. But a 20-point lead, they acknowledge, will be arduous to overcome.
“A +16 is doable. A +20 is very difficult,” said a Democratic strategist. “He is the only [Senate Democrat] right now. He has a real chance. … He just has to stay in the state and hope that Trump only wins there by 15 to 16 points.”
Republicans have grown increasingly hopeful after two failed attempts to finally capture Tester’s seat, and are quick to point out that Montana is the only state where they have a lead. They believe the only thing that could save Tester would be a monumental mistake by Sheehy that alienates Trump voters.
“Tester needs a miracle,” said one Republican activist. “He can’t afford to ever lose, and he’s losing.”
Ohio
Montana and Ohio were considered the two candidates with the best chances of success for the Republicans throughout much of the election cycle.
But as November approaches, the two races are drifting further apart and it becomes more likely that Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown (D) will win a fourth term.
Brown is undoubtedly fighting an uphill battle. Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020, and the state has become less cordial to Democrats over time.
But Brown has run a robust race. Even Republicans like his ads, and his consistent argument of economic populism has proven effective.
He also received a significant boost from being the only candidate on the radio for five months following Republican Bernie Moreno’s primary victory in March, despite a constant presence from Republican super PACs and outside groups.
Republican Party officials acknowledge that Brown’s spending has left its mark.
“Moreno made a strategic move by waiting to spend money until he looked white people in the eye,” said former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio). “The question is: Did he wait too long?”
The Republican candidate recently launched a $25 million advertising campaign, and Republicans are spending a lot of money on it independently of him. Last week, pro-Moreno forces alone spent about $8 million, and that number is expected to rise week by week.
Accordingly Current surveysBrown had a consistent 5-point lead and DDHQ estimates his chances of winning at 63 percent.
Republicans are confident they can narrow that gap, but acknowledge it won’t be effortless.
“No Democrat as liberal as he can survive in a state that has turned so radically red without a magician’s ability to deceive voters,” a second GOP official said. “And he has that ability.”
Michigan
After the two “red states,” the fight for Republicans to win a swing state will become much tougher, but the vacant seat in Wolverine State is developing into one of their better chances.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is trying to defeat Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the upper chamber in 30 years, but Republicans have reason for optimism.
Michigan is one of the few states on the Senate map that does not have a Democratic incumbent, and some recent polls show victory within striking distance.
But it may still be too far-fetched. Republican activists remain concerned about Slotkin’s large advantage in fundraising about the former Republican member of the House of Representatives.
“He doesn’t have enough right now,” complained a third GOP strategist.
Moreover, they are concerned about the margin in a presidential race. Even if Trump were to win the state, the margin would likely be no larger than a few thousand votes – just like in 2016 – and activists say it’s unlikely Rogers could tie with the former president.
The latest survey from (*5*)The Hill and Emerson College suggests so, as Harris leads by 3 points and Slotkin has a 6-point lead over Rogers.
Nevada
Incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen (Democrat, Nevada) is the favorite over Republican Sam Brown, a retired Army captain, in a race that has been shaped by political winds in recent months.
What hasn’t changed, however, is that a Brown win would be a huge surprise.
Republicans are concerned that Brown, like Rogers, is financially strapped and won’t be able to get his story across to the masses without tough campaign cash. That’s something Democrats are quick to notice, too.
The Nevada primary just took place in June, and Brown is still trying to introduce himself to voters, trailing by double digits in some polls.
According to the latest (*5*)Emerson College/The Hill The poll has Rosen ahead by 10 points, with Harris’ entry into the presidential race playing a key role. Several polls conducted after Biden’s disastrous debate performance, which ultimately led him to withdraw his candidacy, showed Rosen’s lead shrinking.
Now DDHQ gives Rosen a chance of winning of 81 percent.
A second Democratic official put it this way: Rosen was probably “super excited” about the swap because, unlike Brown, Senator Bob Casey (D-Penn.) and the other incumbents running for election this fall, she is “not exactly an independent brand.”
“She has no chance of breaking away from the frontrunners, and she doesn’t have to worry about that now,” the agent said. “It’s harder to call her a regular Democrat. Now she’s just a nice Jewish woman who’s a team player for the Democratic Party.”
Pennsylvania
There is no way to exaggerate this: these have not been good days for David McCormick.
The Republican candidate made several major mistakes last week when he confused a shooting in Philadelphia, Mississippi, as in Pennsylvania’s largest city, and was reprimanded by Hersheypark for incorrectly stating the price of an amusement park ticket.
Nevertheless, some Republicans still see a glimmer of hope in the Keystone State.
They point to McCormick’s well-funded campaign and the fact that the state’s 19 votes will likely decide the White House seat, so this campaign will in no way disappear from the public consciousness.
But bringing down Casey, the scion of one of the state’s most significant political families, was never going to be effortless. The latest (*5*)Emerson/The Hill Poll shows Casey leading by 4 points and Trump and Harris tied, underscoring just how large a mountain McCormick has to climb.
“Is McCormick really going to be only 50,000 votes behind Trump? I don’t see how that’s possible,” said the first GOP operative. “There are Casey/Trump voters, and they’re elderly and white, from northeast and southwest Pennsylvania. … They voted for the [Casey] Name for 40 years.”
“[McCormick] gives me no reason to believe he will win,” they added.
