A recent poll shows that the guilty verdicts in the Manhattan trial against former President Donald Trump did not have a major impact on people’s perception of the case. ABC/Ipsos poll, published on Sundayalso shows that a significant minority of people still have no opinion.
A majority of Americans, 50%, believe former President Donald Trump was right to be found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial, according to a recent ABC News/Ipsos According to a poll, almost as many (49%) believe he should end his 2024 presidential campaign because of the result.
Nevertheless, after the historic criminal trial that took place this week in a first conviction of a former president, Trump’s popularity has remained stable at 31%, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. Trump was found guilty He was indicted on Thursday on 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with a payment to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to keep her peaceful about her alleged affair.
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First poll after the verdict is here – see how the Democrats are tearing their hair out
What is engaging is that a significantly larger proportion of those surveyed were of the opinion that the process was politically motivated.
47 percent of Americans said the charges against Trump were politically motivated, while 38 percent said they were not. At the same time, a narrow majority of 51 percent believe that Trump intentionally did something illegal in this case. 12 percent think Trump did something wrong, but not intentionally, and 19 percent believe he did nothing wrong.
It is essential to note that President Biden’s approval ratings are still underwater at the time of this writing; the RealClearPolitics AverageJob satisfaction polls show 40.5 percent approval versus 56.2 percent disapproval. Those are disastrous numbers for a president seeking re-election, but no president seeking re-election is facing an opponent battling unprecedented legal attacks from all sides.
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The latest round of swing state polls also shows that Trump is maintaining his lead in these key swing states. after the verdict.
As with most presidential elections, independents will have an outsized influence on the final outcome. The lines between Democrats and Republicans are clearly drawn; the bitter nature of the campaign has probably sealed this difference. Independents, in this surveyseem to be fairly evenly distributed.
Forty-five percent of independents and 51 percent of “double haters” (those who oppose both candidates) think the hush money trial was politically motivated, compared with 83 percent of Republicans and 20 percent of Democrats.
Remember that “independent” does not mean “centrist.” Independents are people who do not belong to any party and span the entire political spectrum. So while it’s often thought that independents represent the blurry middle, that’s not necessarily the case.
It’s still early in the game. The Trump verdict was announced just hours ago. It remains to be seen what impact it will have on the election. And here’s the problem: The polls of recent years have been decidedly mixed; in the 2016 election in particular, pollsters were spectacularly off the mark. As I’ve been saying since the verdict in Trump’s Manhattan trial, we’re now in uncharted territory; pollsters may have to drastically change some of their assumptions if they want to predict the final outcome with any degree of accuracy. Add to that the fact that in any election, anywhere, any time, voter turnout is critical. From now on, after this verdict, many people will be crawling in their bellies through a field of thumbtacks, fire ants, and Tabasco sauce to vote for Donald Trump. That’s a factor that polls can’t determine or evaluate.
You can read the survey and its results in full here. Herewhile the topline and methodology can be read Here.
