Democratic Senator Jon Tester (Montana) is keeping his distance from the newly formed Harris-Walz candidate team, as the vulnerable incumbent faces a close re-election race that could decide control of the upper house.
Tester praised Vice President Harris when she became President Biden’s running mate back in 2020but he has kept her 2024 presidential candidacy at bay. Last week he According to reports, when Montana’s Democratic delegates joined a virtual vote to make Harris the party’s official nominee. He is also expected to skip the Democratic National Convention this month, even as the party builds momentum behind Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).
At the same time, the controversial senator this week founded a “Republicans for Testers” group to garner support from across the aisle. His actions underscore the tough political landscape he faces in Big Sky County, which former President Trump won by more than 16 points in 2020.
“In a state like Montana, it’s not advantageous to be seen with someone your opponent would describe as a liberal from San Francisco teaming up with a liberal from Minnesota. And you’re exposing yourself to the social/cultural wars that come with that platform,” said Democratic strategist Fred Hicks.
“They have the lowest possible margins [in the Senate]. There’s no room for error. And that’s why you absolutely have to allow people to do what’s best for them if you want to keep control,” Hicks added. “It makes perfect sense and is very intelligent of Tester not to give his opponents any more cannon fodder, even though he’s a Democrat and nobody doubts that.”
Democrats are bullish about their efforts to retain control of the Senate, where they currently hold a two-seat majority. The party cannot afford to lose Tester’s seat, which Republicans see as a prime opportunity to gain seats in West Virginia – where they are virtually certain to win – and Ohio.
Tester is the last Democrat from Montana elected nationwideand polls show him neck and neck with Republican businessman Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer backed by the Republican establishment, including Trump.
Millions were invested in the race, Tester has the advantage in raising fundsBut the incumbent still faces political headwinds as the state leans Democratic. fresh survey by Emerson College Polling/The Hill of Montana voters found Sheehy ahead of Tester by 2 points, a change from the spring when the Democrat narrowly led.
A Forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) things look bleak for Tester and give Sheehy a 77 percent chance of winning the race. DDHQ’s map describes the election campaign in Montana as “more Republican,” while the non-partisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates it as a “draw”.
“He really wants the people of Montana to focus on his accomplishments for the state,” Hicks said of Tester. “He doesn’t want this to be a national campaign. And so the best way to prevent nationalization is to avoid the national events and national candidates and say, ‘This is about Montana.'”
Tester was the second Democrat in the Senate Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. And as Montana delegates cast their votes to support Harris in a virtual roll call, NBCMontana And Montana Public Radio reported that Tester was the only state delegate to refuse support.
That abstention was an inside move that probably won’t draw much attention, but it was a defensive move, said Montana-based Republican strategist Erik Iverson, a former chairman of the Montana Republican Party and a pollster for Sheehy’s campaign. If Tester had cast a pro-Harris vote, Republicans would have seized on it, he said.
Senate Republicans have already sharply criticized Tester for encouraging Harris to run for Senate in 2015. when he was chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Sheehy has also increased again Tester’s support on social media in 2020, when Harris was chosen as Biden’s vice president, he called his rival “sneaky.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman claimed in a recent column that Tester “did everything in his power not to communicate his position on the upcoming presidential election to the people of Montana.”
In a similar vein, Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf argued that some vulnerable senators do not want to attend the Democratic Party convention, which begins in Chicago at the end of the month, in order not to give the Republicans ammunition.
A spokesperson for the campaign told Associated Press this tester will be “Agriculture and meetings face to face with the people of Montana” during the convention. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who also fights a Trump-backed challenger in a state that is increasingly leaning toward the Democrats, said CNN he will skip the meeting.
“It is the photos of them being there that are more dangerous than the fact that they are there,” Sheinkopf said of her decision to stay away from the event.
Although many Democrats seem euphoric about the front-runner after the reshuffle of the presidential campaign last month, it is still too early, says Sheinkopf, and “nobody really knows what impact Harris’ nomination will have.”
According to AP, Tester has not been to Congress since 2008, when former President Obama only a few points were missing Montana to turn around.
Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, argued that “boycotting the convention and staying away from a candidate” is not enough to support Democrats like Tester influence voters.
“These candidates are doing their best to escape the Harris-Walz campaign team, but their options are limited,” Darling said.
Tester’s approach is in stark contrast to Sheehy, who has placed himself at the top of the list, praise its orientation with Trump.
The former president was on his way to Bozeman on Friday evening to campaign with the Republican candidate. Although the state anything but guaranteed to vote for Trump in the presidential election after he won by gigantic margins in both 2016 and 2020, he reiterates his efforts in 2018 to displace testers.
Meanwhile, Tester is reaching out to Montana Republicans, pitching himself as a lawmaker who can represent both ends of the state’s political spectrum. His group, “Republicans for Tester,” has more than 100 GOP members, including former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot and former Secretary of State Bob Brown, his campaign team said.
“I will work with anyone, regardless of party, to do justice to Montana,” the senator said wrote on the social platform X Earlier this week.
“I understand what Tester is trying to do, because he has to,” said Iverson, the Republican strategist. “He is desperately trying to make Montana voters believe he is a moderate.”
“But right now, voters in the state are saying, ‘If I want a Republican in the U.S. Senate, I might as well vote for a Republican.'”
