HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Republicans have put Pennsylvania and Wisconsin back on the winning list in the 2024 presidential race, and they hope the momentum carries over to contests this year that will decide whether their states’ supreme courts remain in power Left-leaning majorities have or are shifting to conservative control.
The outcome could be crucial for Congress and state legislatures in deciding cases involving abortion, voting disputes, election laws and redistricting.
The money is pouring in and is expected to surpass the more than $70 million spent on state Supreme Court races combined two years ago.
The race in Wisconsin has drawn the attention of Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla who is a close ally of President Donald Trump, and has raised tensions related to Trump’s pardon of his supporters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 stormed, brought to lithe.
“For both sides, these races appear to have much, much higher profile than they used to,” said JJ Abbott, who runs Commonwealth Communications, a progressive advocacy group in Pennsylvania.
The state Supreme Court elections are among the most pricey and hotly contested in recent years, given the importance of these courts in deciding divisive issues.
Republicans want to flip the courts
Republicans are confident after Trump won both states in November.
The courts there have played an vital role since governments in both states have been divided, with Democratic governors and legislatures under either full or partial Republican control.
In the last few years alone, liberal majorities on the supreme courts of both states have handed Democrats victories in cases involving the boundaries of Wisconsin’s legislative districts and Pennsylvania’s congressional districts.
Victories by Democrats or their allies in voting rights cases also included overturning Wisconsin’s ban on mail-in ballots and ensuring that Pennsylvanians can vote by provisional ballot if their mail-in ballot is rejected.
Musk quoted in a message posted last week on his social platform
A recount, an impartial audit and a report from a conservative law firm all confirmed that there was no widespread fraud in Wisconsin in 2020, when mail-in ballot boxes were used, and that Democrat Joe Biden won the state’s presidential contest.
The Democratic-backed candidate in Wisconsin’s officially nonpartisan election race quickly took advantage of Musk’s involvement to launch a fundraising campaign.
Liberals also highlighted the Republican-backed candidate’s comments earlier this month that those who stormed the U.S. Capitol would never have been given “a fair chance” in court. Harry Dunn, a former U.S. Capitol Police officer who was on duty during the attack, plans news conferences in Wisconsin on Tuesday to criticize the comments critical of law enforcement.
In the upcoming election, Democrats say they will portray state supreme courts as a bulwark against the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court, the Trump administration and a Congress controlled by the Republican Party.
The issue of abortion rights is expected to play a major role this year, as it did in last year’s Supreme Court races and in the 2023 state Supreme Court campaigns in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These races took place a year after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade instead, ending nearly half a century of the constitutional right to abortion.
The early race in Wisconsin will test the nation’s political mood
Wisconsin’s election is April 1 to replace a retiring liberal justice. It will decide whether liberals or conservatives will achieve a 4:3 majority.
Nick Ramos, executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which tracks election spending, said the race could be in a state where voters in November handed narrow victories to Trump, a Republican, and U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat , going out in both directions.
“After presidential election season, people across the country will look to Wisconsin as a role model, a litmus test for the mood of the country,” Ramos said.
The Wisconsin Democratic Party has endorsed Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford. Waukesha County District Judge Brad Schimel, a former Republican attorney general, has the support of several conservative officials and groups.
Major cases looming in Wisconsin courts include challenges to the state’s 1849 abortion ban and a 2011 law that all but ended collective bargaining for teachers and other public workers.
Large expenditures are expected from outside groups
In Pennsylvania, three Democrats will run to retain their seats in the November general election, putting the Democrats’ 5-2 majority at stake. All three justices – Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht – must vote yes or no to win another 10-year term.
There are cases pending in Pennsylvania courts challenging laws that limit the apply of Medicaid to cover the cost of abortions and require certain mail-in ballots to be invalidated.
In 2023, business associations, political party campaign arms, Planned Parenthood, partisan interest groups, labor unions, legal groups, environmental groups, and wealthy GOP donors including Richard Uihlein and Jeffrey Yass boosted spending in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to over $70 million.
The Wisconsin race alone topped $51 million, breaking the national record for spending on a judicial race.
Abortion rights were the dominant issue in that contest, which was won by a Democratic-backed justice whose victory gave liberals majority control of the court for the first time in 15 years.
The Wisconsin race is expected to cost even more this year as the two candidates have already raised more than what was raised at this point in 2023.
Schimel said in an interview on WISN-AM last year that outside groups are “advocating for us to regain the majority in this court” and that he was confident “we will have the money to do the things we want to do.” have to do to win this.”
He recently launched a $1.1 million national television ad buy, marking the first television ad spending in the race. Crawford went on the air a week later.
Spending topped $22 million in Pennsylvania’s 2023 primary, won by Democrats whose campaign focused on attacks on rulings by the conservative majority of the U.S. Supreme Court.
Both sides are developing strategies to overcome voter fatigue
Wisconsin Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff said she thinks voter fatigue is a problem for both sides in the Supreme Court race. The election comes just months after the state was flooded with television ads, candidate appearances, direct mail and phone calls during the presidential campaign.
The best strategy is for her candidate to travel the state and meet directly with voters, Baldauff said.
“You can never underestimate how important it is to get around, talk to people and literally meet them where they are,” she said.
Michelle McFall, chairwoman of the Westmoreland County Democratic Party in Pennsylvania, said at a recent meeting of the state Democratic Party, the upcoming retention contests dominated the conversation.
She said Democrats are concerned that their voters will be distracted by Trump’s behavior as president — “because that’s what we do” — and that party leaders need to remain focused on defending their court majority.
They must raise their efforts to reach both urban and rural voters and learn lessons from Trump’s victorious campaign to apply recent and unconventional ways to get their message out, McFall said.
Republicans say it’s too early to know how much money will arrive to fuel a campaign to enter the retention contests. The success of a “no” campaign could depend on the GOP receiving high-level support.
“One question,” said GOP insider Charlie Gerow, “is how much influence President Trump will have on this issue.”
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Bauer reported from Madison, Wisconsin.
