HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Billions of dollars in advertising are raining down on voters in the Rust Belt, the Rocky Mountains and the U.S. Southwest as the two major political parties portray their opponents’ candidates as extreme in the fight for control of the U.S Represent US Senate.
Three races alone — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana — are expected to spend more than $1 billion through Nov. 5.
Ohio race could break Senate election spending record. The Montana race will be considered the most pricey Senate race ever per vote. And as the game draws to a close, Democrats are sending millions more dollars to Texas, a Republican stronghold where the party has recent hopes of unseating two-term conservative Sen. Ted Cruz, a surprise that could lend a hand them protect their majority .
Republicans need to pick up two seats to achieve a surefire majority, and one of them — West Virginia — is all but in the bag for the GOP.
Other breeds are more volatile and less predictable.
For Democrats, the brutal math of this year’s election cycle forces them to defend eight seats in arduous states. Losses by incumbents could amount to extinction for Democrats who represent reliably Republican states.
The election will also test the strength of both parties in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the leading presidential election states known as the “Blue Wall” because of their relatively reliable Democratic voting histories. Republican victories there would dramatically change the playing field in the Senate.
All told, data from political ad tracking firm AdImpact estimates more than $2.5 billion will be spent on advertising in Senate races this two-year campaign cycle, slightly more than in 2022.
That includes half a billion dollars in Ohio alone, another $340 million in Pennsylvania, and $280 million in Montana, a population of 1.1 million, or less than a tenth of the population of Ohio or Pennsylvania. The most pricey Senate race ever was Democrat John Ossoff’s victory in a Georgia race that went to a runoff in 2021 and decided control of the Senate, according to data from campaign finance organization Open Secrets.
In general, campaign strategists expect Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to be ahead of his party’s Senate candidates in battleground states in polls, while the Democratic candidates are ahead of their presidential candidate Kamala Harris in those states.
That means there is a segment of voters who could vote for Trump but won’t support Republicans in the Senate races – or who could split their votes with Democratic Senate candidates.
Such divisions were uncommon. In Maine, for example, voters in 2020 supported Democrat Joe Biden for president and re-elected Republican Senator Susan Collins.
Republican strategists expect the party’s major super PACs to remain until Election Day in seven states where Democrats are defending Senate seats: Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where polls show competitive races, but also Nevada and Arizona, where Republicans are represented, encouraged by mighty early voting numbers.
Republicans are most confident of flipping the seat in deep-red Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy is challenging third-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. They’re also bullish about reliably red Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno is challenging third-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Torunn Sinclair, a spokesman for two Republican super PACs, said one – American Crossroads – is taking $2.8 million out of Montana, while the two are putting several million more into Pennsylvania.
There, Republican David McCormick is trying to oust three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in a presidential race that both sides say is close.
McCormick, a former CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, has pushed the message in two debates that Casey is “certain” to support the Biden-Harris administration’s agenda.
In recent days, Casey began running an ad in conservative areas touting his “greed inflation” legislation to crack down on price gouging. The ad says, “Casey stood up to Biden to protect fracking” and “sided with Trump on trade and tariffs.”
Republicans say Casey’s Trump ad is similar to a television commercial aired by Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and that it expresses the need for both Democrats to protect themselves from Harris’ vulnerability in their states.
“They’re hoping to poach enough Trump voters to win,” Sinclair said.
Still, Casey ran a similar ad in the 2018 midterm elections when he won handily — although that ad didn’t mention Trump — while Casey’s campaign points out that he has long separated himself from Democrats by opposing free trade agreements and projects to generate energy from fossil fuels.
Democrats, however, say they are forcing contests toward the end of the campaign in two red states, Texas and Nebraska. Displacing incumbent Republicans from one or both of those seats could give Democrats at least a 50-50 split in the Senate if Democrats lose in Montana or Ohio.
In Texas, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, a former professional football player, proved adept at raising tiny donations in his challenge to incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred has outshined every Senate candidate nationally except Tester and Brown.
According to AdImpact, the ad spending advantage for Allred was 3 to 2, with the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC announcing a recent seven-figure digital ad buy and a separate $5 million TV ad buy supporting Cruz on a key issue attacks Democrats, abortion rights.
Additionally, Democrats hope Harris’ rally in Houston on Friday with Allred and Beyoncé Allred can lend a hand by increasing Black voter turnout.
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn — a tattooed former labor leader who supports abortion rights — appears to have solidified Democratic and independent voters while making some inroads with Republicans, Democratic strategists say.
While Osborn is running as an independent and has not said which party he would caucus with, he has support from a liberal super PAC that has helped him gain a significant spending advantage over Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.
In both states, Republicans admit they had to spend unexpected money to improve their incumbents’ prospects, but also say they expect a comfortable victory.
In Ohio, Brown has tried to personalize his appeal by appearing in most of his own ads and speaking directly to the camera.
“I’m Sherrod Brown and I have a question,” Brown says as he looks into the camera and rests his elbow on what might look like a table in a woodshop. “Have you ever heard Bernie Moreno talk about what he’s going to work for? Ohio?”
Brown also makes a personal appeal to potential swing voters, saying he has spent his career fighting for workers and veterans and working with law enforcement and “presidents of both parties to do what is best for our state.”
Elsewhere, strategists expect first-time Florida Sen. Rick Scott to fend off a challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and that in deep blue Maryland, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will beat former Gov. Larry Hogan for a Democratic challenge Senator to fill the vacant seat. Ben Cardin.
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Associated Press reporter Julie Carr Smyth in Columbus, Ohio, contributed to this report. Follow Marc Levy at twitter.com/timelywriter.
