The number of registered independent voters is increasing in the USA and forces campaigns to deal with it tough questions how to target these voters before the middle of next year and the presidential elections in 2028.
According to a recent report by the partners of The Hill in Decision Desk headquarters, the majority of the US states report on their most critical voters of voters who do not want to be connected to a political party. In addition, the exit queries from the 2024 presidential election showed that self -identified independent figures were superior.
Experts say that one of the main drivers in independent voters is growing dissatisfaction with the two-party system.
“Dissatisfaction with the partisan of our current political environment and the feeling of frustration over the standstill and things like that helps people say:” Hey, I don’t want to say openly that I identify myself with one of the two gigantic parties, “said Geoffrey Skelley, chief election analyst at the decision -making business.
Some say that part of the enhance in independent voters can be attributed to an increased automatic electoral registration in different countries. The front-end administration automatically reports the voter in the Department of Motor Vehicles and enables it to complete himself during the process. The back-end management automatically reports to the voter, but does not allow you to conclude during the process.
Skelley noticed a trend that has remained unchanged is that most independently tend to lean against either left or right. The exit queries from the presidential election of the past year indicate that many independent people were swung towards Republicans and apparently a key role in the handover of enormous battlefield states to President Trump seemed to play.
According to the initial conversion data from Edison Research Band, the proportion of independent voters in 2024 the Republicans with 34 percent. The proportion of Democrats in the voter was 32 percent. In addition, the turnout of the independent voters rose by 8 points in November, but was still behind Republicans and Democrats.
Some Democrats say this should be a cause for the party, given the widespread victories of Trump.
“This is no surprise,” said Jon Reinish, a democratic strategist. “It is also a very direct return and an indication that national Democrats, so many of them, have lost their way and have only failed to communicate the voters.
However, the exit survey showed that former Vice President Kamala Harris Trump exceeded with independent. According to Edison Research, 50 percent of the independent assumed that they voted for Harris, while 45 percent stated, voted for Trump.
Nevertheless, the data showed that Trump improved his reputation among the independent by 4 points.
Reinish accuses the panties of the Democrats with independent voters not to meet the voters where they are and speak to them in an true way.
“Stop talking as if you are trying to lead a little college for free arts and talk to people about what is important,” he said.
A Republican surgical found that the GOP could address these voters by focusing on problems with the kitchen table table that are aimed at certain states.
“It goes to the economy, cost of living, education, public security. These are consistently at the top,” said the company. “But it will also be things like energy costs.”
The operational New Jersey’s governor race used as an example of a state in which energy costs are one of the top problems, and found that the topic of conversation from GOP candidate Jack Ciatarelli found that the state has increased this costs.
“The same convinced message will not work in a virginia for a profitable Sears,” said the operative and referred to the state Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R), who runs for the governor.
“Your behavior varies the state of the state, choice of choice, problem of problem,” said the operative. “It is not a monolith. A good part of independent voters is not really independent. They tend to be with a party in 90 percent of cases, but can be convinced in large critical breeds.”
Skelley repeated this point and found that independent voters often reflect the political lean of a state. Last week, Colorado’s State Secretary announced that voters that were not associated with the majority of registered voters announced. According to the data, 50.3 percent of the registered voters stated that they were not connected, while 24.8 percent stated that they identified with the Democratic Party, and 22.4 percent said the same about the Republican Party.
However, this does not necessarily mean that a nationwide victory for Republicans in Colorado would be uncomplicated. According to Axios Denver, 60 percent of these non -connected voters bend to the left, while the rest of the Republicans lean on.
“At the end of the day, in the face of the slim Colorado we know that these voters generally annoy more democratically than republican,” said Skelley. “In a state that is more conservative, there is a good chance that these voters will tend to republicans.”
Massachusetts and Alaska lead the states in independent voters. Independent people make up 62 percent of the voting population in Massachusetts and 60 percent in Alaska.
Other states with enormous independent voters are New Hampshire, Connecticut, North Carolina, Iowa and Oregon, which show how independent voters are distributed in the states in red, blue and purple.
Skelley predicted that the increased proportion of independent voters could ironically feed a partisanity in order to enable the most state supporters of each party to take over the reins of the partnerships and campaigns.
“To a certain extent, this also means that they are absent from the political process in a way, since we nominate candidates that listen to people within the parties, who voluntarily reports on campaigns that deal with politics,” said Skelley. “It is quite possible that it contributes to polarization, since people who are less strict in their partisan views do not include exactly.”
The Republican operator found that both parties ultimately must have to do with the rise of independent voters in the future.
“This independent voter is treated differently in each state and even its tendency to vote varies in every state,” said the company.
“You have to be able to find out how to report both messages,” added the operative. “This is the art of campaign.”
