While Alaska’s problems often affect Alaskans first and foremost, our 2024 general election for the House of Representatives is drawing national attention. Why is that? In part because the balance of the House is at stake and the seats could be few and far between. In part, it’s because of the complications that ranked choice voting (RCV) has brought with it—and how both parties are handling it here in the Great Country.
Must Read Alaska’s Suzanne Downing, as always, offers some excellent local analysis:
The Cook Political Report, which conducts nationwide campaign analysis, has moved the race for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in Alaska from the “Less than Democratic” category to the “Undecided” category in its latest rankings.
This change explains why Democrats, who have their own polling center, are now suing the state election board to block the re-election of Rep. Mary Peltola, who is running against Republican Nick Begich in the general election.
Ranked choice voting has been a real mess here in the Last Frontier; Mary Peltola is in office largely because of this unnecessarily elaborate and confusing system, which violates the principle of “one person, one vote.” But there is one key difference between this year and the 2020 election, when Republican Nick Begich III and former Republican vice presidential candidate and governor Sarah Palin ran against Mary Peltola. That year, the runner-up among the GOP candidates for the House seat, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom, withdrew her candidacy after the primary. While other candidates remain on the ballot – despite efforts by national Democrats to remove them – it is now essentially a race between two candidates.
Alaska’s seat is just one of several Republicans hope to win in November, Downing notes:
In addition to the fact that Peltola is now in danger in the general election, Cook Political Report says that Peltola’s “rural antifa” colleagues in the House of Blue Dog Democrats – Rep. Jared Golden of Maine and Rep. Marie Glusenkamp-Perez of Washington – also face hard elections. The novel Democratic candidates list according to the Cook Political Report is here:
- AK-AL Peltola
- CO-08 Caraveo
- ME-02 Gold
- MI-07 OPEN (Slotkin)
- MI-08 OPEN (Kildee)
- NC-01 Davis
- NM-02 Vasquez
- OH-13 Sykes
- PA-07 Wild
- PA-08 Wheelwright
- WA-03 Perez
The Republicans’ currently razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives must be expanded if a possible second Trump administration is to have any chance of legislative success.
See also: Battle for the large country: Republicans in Alaska strive for seat in the House of Representatives
Turning point: Republican Dahlstrom from Alaska withdraws from the race for the seat in the House of Representatives, giving the Republicans the victory
At the time of writing this article RealClearPolitics averages for these critical elections are as follows:
- AK-AL – tends towards the Democrats (I am extremely skeptical about that.)
- CO-08 – Tossup
- ME-02 – Tossup
- MI-07 – Tossup
- MI-08 – Tossup
- NC-01 – Coin toss
- NM-02 – Coin toss
- OH-13 – Coin toss
- PA-07 – Tossup
- PA-08 – Tossup
- WA-03 – Tossup
As for our election here in the Great Country, it doesn’t look like the national Democratic apparatus is doing Ms. Peltola any favors. Downing adds:
Working against Peltola is her own party, which has decided to sue another Democrat, Eric Hafner, to keep him from running in November. The Alaska Democrats have hired the country’s top Democratic election lawyer, Marc Elias, who is known for causing chaos at elections.
The lawsuit saps the party’s enthusiasm and embarrasses its voting members in Alaska by making Peltola appear desperate and scheming. Peltola would certainly have agreed to let the party pursue the lawsuit that is supposed to be its lifeline.
We can hope. But Alaska voters are nothing if not fickle. We saw that in 2020, when we had an almost historically low voter turnout – but 2024 is a little different. Ranked choice voting is also back on the ballot, this time liftedand with any luck this will raise voter turnout.
It’s going to be an fascinating final stretch. I spoke with Nick Begich III and was impressed by his certainty, his convictions and his intelligence. He would be a great representative for Alaska. With a decent turnout, a close race and a good campaign, we can hope he sends Mary Peltola back to Bethel.
