Read more Stateline cover how communities across the country are trying to create more affordable housing.
The United States has added nearly 5 million housing units since 2020, most of them in the South and single-family homes, making the housing crisis appear surmountable in much of the country.
Still, more homes need to be built – especially single-family homes, experts say – and persistently high interest rates are hurting potential homebuyers.
Nearly half of the housing gains from April 2020 to July 2023 occurred in six states: Texas, Florida, California, North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee, according to a Stateline analysis of U.S. Census Bureau estimates to be released Thursday. This reflects America’s Movement Patterns Post-Pandemic to profuse suburban housing in Texas and Florida, but also in California sustained pressure for more housing in resistance areas across the state.
Housing experts point out that even after another good year of house construction in 2023, supply still cannot keep up with demand. Last year saw the most residential units produced since 2007. “A Good Year Won’t Solve America’s Housing Crisis” was the title of one Moody’s Analytics report discovered in January that single-family homes in particular continue to be in brief supply.
Moody’s estimated the deficit at about 1.2 million single-family homes and 800,000 other housing units, noting that home sales had slowed since hitting an all-time high in 2022 as interest rates rose, making purchases even more unaffordable.
The National Association of Realtors, in a February reportoffered a higher estimate of the housing shortage of about 2.5 million units, mostly single-family homes.
Most recent residential units in recent years have been single-family homes separate U.S. Census Bureau construction survey According to the survey, production of recent single-family homes reached more than 1 million per year in 2022 and 2023 for the first time since the housing bubble burst in 2007.
Residential construction is also at a historic level with 438,500 units built last year, the highest level since 1987. The number of apartments under construction at the end of the year was around 981,000, an all-time high since the survey began in 1969.
New housing construction is likely to continue at a rapid pace for several years because so much construction has already begun, said Daniel McCue, a senior research fellow at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
“New construction can really just curb overheated rental prices, but it’s really difficult to bring rents down or make things more affordable for people at the bottom end,” McCue said. “Our focus is not on the general shortage of housing units, but on the specific shortage of affordable and available housing for low- and moderate-income people.”
Housing unit data released Thursday, tracking changes through mid-2023, shows a continued raise across the country, with about 1.6 million recent units per year over the past two years.
The gains were concentrated in the West and South, with half of the 4.8 million recent units since 2020 coming from a handful of states: Texas (about 806,000), Florida (586,500), California (371,000), North Carolina (270,500), Georgia (200,000). and Tennessee (164,000).
The percentage raise was highest in the fast-growing Western states: Utah (up 9% since 2020), Idaho (up 8%) and Texas (up 7%). Five states experienced 6% growth in housing units: South Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina.
Arizona, Georgia and Nevada – all key swing states in this year’s presidential election – weren’t far behind with housing unit growth of 5%.
The housing shortage has become a major political talking point, including in the states Scramble to build more units and accommodate people.
For example, Republican Gov. Spencer Cox called high housing prices “the greatest threat to our future prosperity” despite Utah’s nation-leading housing unit growth this decade. State address this year.
“Housing accessibility is a crisis in Utah and in every state in this country,” Cox said, announcing a plan to build 35,000 petite “starter” single-family homes over the next five years.
The Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae, reported last year that the typical home buyer paid 35% of their income in mortgage payments in October, the highest since at least 2000.
A Utah-based think tank, the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, in a report from last year said the pandemic years have brought a boom-and-bust cycle for the state’s housing construction. In 2021, the number of recent permits increased by 26%, only to fall by 21% the following year due to rising interest rates. The recent numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show the number of recent units in the state peaking at 38,500 in 2022 and falling back to about 30,000 in 2023.
According to the Stateline analysis and census data, all states experienced some housing growth, but it was slowest in some states experiencing poverty or low population growth. Rhode Island, Illinois, West Virginia, Connecticut, Alaska and New Jersey only saw a 1% raise in housing units since 2020.
Republican Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy also cited housing affordability as one of the biggest challenges facing the state this year in his report State address. Dunleavy proposed a federally funded down payment assistance program for first-time home buyers as well as changes to lumber classification to make home-building materials more affordable.
Democratic New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy mentioned in his State of the State speech the state’s low housing stock at a time when tens of thousands of New Yorkers are looking for suburban housing there.
“As our population grows while our housing stock remains stable, homeownership will be a luxury reserved only for the elite. This is untenable,” Murphy said.
