CHICAGO (AP) — Again and again this week, Democrats predicted from the massive stage of the electrified congressional hall that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump. They called her a historic figure, an embodiment of hope, a “president of joy.”
But amid all the extraordinary optimism, former First Lady Michelle Obama issued a stern warning: “No matter how good we feel tonight or tomorrow or the day after, it’s going to be an uphill battle.”
The warning was quickly lost in the excitement that surrounded the 17,000-capacity arena in downtown Chicago. But as activists, officials and party leaders leave the Democratic convention and disperse across America, they are beginning to see a harsh reality: The real test for Harris has only just begun.
More than a month after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her, Harris has barely begun to outline detailed plans she will pursue as president to address the country’s biggest challenges — including immigration, crime and climate change. She hasn’t even sat down for an extensive media interview to face tough questions about her policy reversals in recent years, her leadership style and the focus on race and gender that has overshadowed her historic candidacy.
“We can’t bury our heads in the sand. She’s a black woman. The bar is going to be higher for everything,” said John Anzalone, a pollster who has covered the last three Democratic presidential candidates. “And you know what? That means even mistakes. Mistakes are magnified.”
At the same time, Harris’ allies acknowledge that she remains largely undefined in the minds of many voters, having operated in Biden’s shadow for much of the past four years. The relative anonymity presents both opportunities and risks.
“The bad thing about vice presidents is that nobody knows who you are. The good thing about vice presidents is that nobody knows who you are,” said David Axelrod, who served as chief strategist to former President Barack Obama.
Preparing for the debate
Harris now has just over two weeks to prepare for what could be her only presidential debate against Trump, a clash on September 10 that could dramatically change the course of the race. The first presidential debate, of course, effectively forced Biden out of the race.
For now, Harris’ team is in no rush to develop a comprehensive policy program or to face media interviews that could jeopardize the positive atmosphere that has characterized her barely launched campaign and led to a flood of campaign contributions and a growing army of volunteers in swing states.
At a series of meetings during convention week, their advisers portrayed their policy agenda as a continuation and expansion of Biden’s achievements in his first term, particularly on economic issues, even if it may look and sound different in some cases.
Harris has notably abandoned her opposition to fracking and her support for Medicare for All, which were defining features of her 2019 presidential campaign. Her aides insist her values remain the same, but she has adopted more centrist policies out of pragmatism.
“She will advocate for pragmatic, common-sense policies that have a direct impact on improving the lives of Americans,” said Brian Nelson, senior policy adviser to the campaign.
Meanwhile, Harris’ allies believe it is only a matter of time before Trump decides on an effective line of attack.
Trump’s indiscriminate approach against Harris
In recent days, the former Republican president has adopted a hard-hitting tactic against Harris, including attacks on her ethnic identity, her laughter, her record as vice president and her past as a “San Francisco liberal.”
“He’s going to figure out how to get a message across and how to land a political punch,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who delivered a prime-time speech at the convention this week, said of Trump. “I think what you’ve seen from her is the ability to take criticism and just keep going. And that’s a really, really important political quality.”
Others acknowledge that the spotlight will only get brighter in the 74-day sprint to Election Day. And it’s far from certain that the “Harris honeymoon,” as Trump’s team has dubbed this phase of the campaign, will last much longer.
“People ask this question: Will people vote for a black woman? And I actually think that’s always the wrong question,” said Sarah Longwell, a fierce Trump critic and chair of Republican Voters Against Trump. “I think the question is: Will they vote for Kamala Harris, with her special skills and baggage? The biggest problem for Kamala Harris is that people see her as too progressive, and that’s going to hurt her with these swing voters.”
Changing public views
Polls show that voters’ opinions of Harris have changed relatively quickly in the month since Biden stepped down and she became the de facto candidate.
In a June AP-NORC poll, only 39 percent of Americans expressed a favorable opinion of Harris, and 12 percent said they did not know enough to have an opinion.
After Biden’s resignation, an AP-NORC poll in August found that 48% of Americans had a favorable opinion of Harris, while only 6% said they did not know enough to form an opinion. The latest poll also showed that 27% of adults have a “very” favorable opinion of Harris, up from 14% in June.
The significant shift raises the possibility that public opinion could change again as voters learn more.
There’s also the possibility that Harris’s surge has less to do with her candidacy than with a sense of relief among Democrats that Biden has dropped out. Shortly before he dropped out of the race, an AP-NORC poll found that nearly two-thirds of Democrats said they did not want Biden to run again, and about half said they would be unhappy if he were the nominee.
Quentin Wathum-Ocama, chairman of the Young Democrats of America, said his enthusiasm was a mix of relief at Biden’s resignation and excitement about Harris. Given her relatively low profile over the past four years, he acknowledged that even he did not know much about her governing plans.
As a public school teacher, for example, he would like to learn more about their education policies, he said.
“Do people know her? People know about her,” Wathum-Ocama said. “I can be excited, but I want more.”
He may have to wait a while longer.
A campaign with little politics?
Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, which supports Harris, describes herself as a policy nerd. But she said previous efforts by Democrats to outline detailed policy programs have not resonated with voters. She and several other Harris allies emphasized this week that the candidate’s values are what matter most.
The party’s nominee in 2016, Hillary Clinton, for example, wrote more than two dozen policy papers, each with over 50,000 words and hundreds of extensive footnotes. Trump had virtually no detailed agenda that year. And Clinton lost.
“We used to make ten-point plans, but they weren’t even happy with five-point plans,” Weingarten said. “I don’t think that’s the American attitude.”
Harris has so far released only a preview of the plans she will pursue as president. Delegates to the convention did not update the party’s formal platform to reflect her wishes. In some cases, the document still refers to “Biden’s second term.”
But gradually some details are coming to airy.
Last week, Harris outlined a plan for her first 100 days to send Congress proposed federal caps on price increases for food producers and grocers. She also promised to make lasting a $3,600-per-child tax credit for eligible families, approved through 2025, while offering a fresh $6,000 tax credit for newborns.
And it calls for building three million fresh housing units over four years and expanding a Biden administration plan that includes a potential $25,000 down payment grant to make it easier for some renters to buy their own home.
Harris also wants to accelerate a Biden administration effort that would allow Medicare and other federal programs to negotiate with pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower prescription drug costs. The goal is to reduce the prices of some of the most pricey and commonly used drugs by about 40 to 80 percent starting in 2026.
Trump’s campaign is focusing on the lack of concrete information from Harris’ campaign and her refusal to be available for media interviews. They are also closely monitoring her momentum.
At Trump’s rally in Asheboro, North Carolina, 69-year-old deputy factory manager Jerry Zimmerman smiled when asked about the Republican nominee’s prospects in November, but he also predicted that defeating Harris will be “much harder” than Biden.
He said it was possible that she would win.
“If they can prove that everything was fair, I’m OK with that,” Zimmerman said of a possible Harris victory. “I think a lot of people will be OK with the outcome.”
There is little time left to change course
At the same time, the tight election period leaves the two candidates with little time for a drastic change of course.
Early voting begins on September 16 in Pennsylvania, arguably the most critical swing state in the country. Voting will take place in North Carolina, Minnesota and Illinois at the end of September. Final voting will take place on Election Day, November 5.
Television advertising spaces have also already been booked.
Between Friday and Election Day, Republicans will spend more than $120 million on presidential campaign television advertising, according to data from media tracker AdImpact, with much of the spending going to attack Harris.
Democrats, however, are expected to spend more than double that amount by Election Day. Harris and her allies have reserved more than $270 million for television advertising in the 73 days from Friday through November 5.
Still, Michelle Obama predicted the road to Election Day could be rocky, warning that Harris’ team was sure to make mistakes and encouraging Democrats to stay focused on the work needed to defeat Trump.
“As soon as something goes wrong, as soon as a lie takes hold, folks, we can’t wring our hands,” the former first lady said in her prime-time speech this week. “We can’t develop a Goldilocks complex about whether everything is right. And we can’t give in to our fears about whether this country is going to elect someone like Kamala instead of doing everything we can to get someone like Kamala elected.”
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AP writers Josh Boak in Chicago and Michelle L. Price in Asheboro, North Carolina, contributed.
