TRENTON, Mich. (AP) — The same Michigan voters Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris needs in the critical swing state will also decide whether her party can gain a foothold in state government two years after her historic victory.
Michigan Democrats adopted a mighty progressive agenda after the 2022 midterm elections as they won control of both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office for the first time in nearly four decades.
Even if the state Senate does not vote on Tuesday, Democrats could risk losing their two-seat majority in the state House of Representatives and potentially harm Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s ability to enact even more items on her priority list in her final two years in office.
“We’ve been able to accomplish some great things, but with very slim margins,” Whitmer said at a recent news conference.
Michigan is one of several states where the political balance of one or more chambers of the legislature could change, with Arizona, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin other targets for both parties.
Whitmer, considered a rising star for Democrats nationally, spent the first six years of her term working for a Republican-controlled Legislature. But over the past two years, a trifecta of Democratic-led state government has been necessary to pass things like gun control measures and tax policy, she said.
Democrats are focused on protecting reproductive rights to maintain control of all aspects of state government, even though abortion access is enshrined in the state constitution. Republican candidates are trying to convince voters that Democrats’ control at home and in Washington, D.C., has undermined their purse strings and public safety.
“We need to get things back under control in our state government,” said Bill G. Schuette, chairman of the Michigan House Republican Campaign Committee.
In the Downriver area south of downtown Detroit, former elementary school teacher Jaime Churches is focusing on reproductive rights and infrastructure as she seeks a second term in the state House, two years after winning the seat by just 660 votes.
“I knew how hard it was last time and I knew what I needed to get there,” Churches said in an interview at her campaign office in Trenton, Michigan.
The suburban district where 36-year-old Churches is running against 22-year-old Republican Rylee Linting is made up of a handful of diminutive towns and communities in the southern part of populous Wayne County on the west side of the Detroit River. It is home to union members and especially middle class earners.
As candidates ride the wave of momentum from the top, they are trying to distinguish themselves by focusing on local issues. Linting, a state GOP youth vice chairman who campaigned for Charlie Kirk’s conservative Turning Point USA in Michigan, promotes the message of diminutive government and promotes conservative ideals in education. She says her youth offers a up-to-date perspective on politics that is attractive to voters in the district.
“It’s really my generation that has to deal with the consequences of bad policy decisions in Lansing,” Linting said in an interview.
In the midterm elections, a citizen-led ballot initiative to protect abortion access contributed to Democratic victories. Frank Hamet, a Republican county delegate in Flat Rock, said voter turnout in the presidential election will likely have a similar impact on the competitive Downriver races.
Hamet said some workers concerned about the cost of living are turning to Trump, a possible signal of danger for the Democratic legislative candidates.
“People, if you’re frustrated with the way things are, there’s a danger that voters will just want to throw everyone out,” he said.
The National Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee announced in September that it would donate $500,000 more to 13 targeted races in Michigan. The latest campaign finance reports in the state show the group has spent over $3.5 million.
The Republican State Leadership Committee did not respond to a query about investments in Michigan, but recent campaign finance reports show its Michigan PAC spent $1.6 million this year.
Groups allied with Democrats and Republicans had previously planned to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into state legislative battles, with more than 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states up for election this year.
Wisconsin Democrats enter November hoping to regain control of the Assembly for the first time since 2011 and make enough gains in the Senate with the goal of winning the majority in that chamber in two years.
In neighboring Minnesota, Gov. Tim Walz — Harris’ vice presidential running mate — used a Democratic trifecta to push a sweeping progressive agenda. That could be at stake this year, as a special election for an open seat will decide which party controls the Minnesota Senate, which is currently tied, while Republicans need a net gain of just four seats to take control of the House of the state.
While New Hampshire’s 24-member Senate is more reliably Republican, control of the 400-member House has changed hands in six of the last 10 elections. The margin in the House narrowed in 2022, and since then the changes have left the chamber with 197 Republicans, 191 Democrats, one independent and 11 vacancies. Due to mighty divisions, neither party has made any sweeping changes in the past two years.
If Republicans capture the Michigan House of Representatives, Democrats will likely quickly pass a voting rights package and other legislation in the lame-duck period between Election Day and the swearing-in of the up-to-date Legislature.
Whitmer said while the presidential election tends to draw the most attention, the voting rounds are just as critical.
“Who is elected to the Legislature matters greatly to your daily life,” Whitmer said.
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Associated Press writers Todd Richmond in Madison, Wisconsin; Steve Karnowski in Minneapolis; Holly Ramer in Concord, New Hampshire; and David Lieb in Jefferson City, Missouri, contributed to this report.
