Voting ends on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in the first primary of the midterm elections. (Getty Photos)
Voting in the first primaries of the 2026 midterm elections ends Tuesday Arkansas, North Carolina And Texas.
The results will provide insight into voter sentiment as primary season begins and provide a sense of what type of candidates appeal to each party’s base. Crucially, the rapid succession of primaries through September will determine who will fight for control of Congress in the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, whose figure casts a immense shadow over Tuesday’s races.
Republicans now control the US Senate with 53 seats. Republican senators in each of the three states holding primaries on Tuesday are showing three different approaches to navigating Washington in the age of Trump:
- Tom Cotton of Arkansas is a staunch Trump defender who the president has endorsed. Cotton is expected to easily win his primary in a state Republicans are expected to win in November.
- John Cornyn of Texas has a pro-Trump voting record, but the former state Supreme Court justice’s style is reminiscent of a pre-Trump Republican. He is in a tough race with Attorney General Ken Paxton, a brash culture warrior who is more aligned with Trump’s MAGA movement.
- And in North Carolina, Thom Tillis is retiring rather than seeking re-election after opposing Trump on key legislation and candidates. Former state Republican leader Michael Whatley is likely to take Tillis’ place as the GOP nominee in a race that Democrats say they must win to have a shot at the Senate majority.
Establishment vs. MAGA in Texas GOP race
There are lively races in Texas for each party’s candidate for a U.S. Senate seat, offering different possibilities for November. Cornyn and Paxton likely face a May runoff, with a third candidate, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, polling in the low double digits.
Trump visited Texas on Friday but has not weighed in on the race, which some see as another front in the internal GOP battle between MAGA supporters and establishment figures.
“I think you’re definitely seeing the last gasp for establishment Republican figures in Texas,” University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus told States Newsroom in a telephone interview. “John Cornyn is one of the last of them and if he doesn’t survive it will be a very strong signal that the party has taken a very different path.”
Cornyn, the former No. 2 Republican in the Senate, is seeking his fifth term. In 2024, he ran to succeed Mitch McConnell of Kentucky as party leader in the House of Representatives, but came in second to John Thune of South Dakota.
The combative Paxton, who has been indicted on bribery charges and faced allegations of infidelity during a messy, public divorce, represents a more pro-Trump candidate. Democrats and Cornyn-affiliated groups believe his scandals could hurt his chances in the general election, but the Republican base is more likely to back him.
“Paxton is vulnerable because of his ethical issues, but John Cornyn is not inspiring Republicans or independents to rush out and vote,” Rottinghaus said. “Those are all the liabilities, so to speak, that are inherent to the candidates, and voters have to make a decision about what they are willing to compromise on.”
The contest boosts voter turnout for Texas Dems
Democrats need to pick up four seats statewide to flip the Senate. Although Texas will be a arduous victory for Democrats, who have not prevailed in a statewide race since 1994, it is unlikely they can regain the Senate majority without a victory in the Lone Star State.
Two Democrats with very different styles, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, have both raised enough money to launch credible campaigns while garnering national attention.
The race between Crockett, a combative lawyer, and Talarico, a milder former teacher, has broken turnout records in early voting.
This can be attributed in part to party members’ powerful opposition to Trump, but is more likely due to the perception that it is a close contest.
The race between Crockett, a black woman, and Talarico, a white man, has turned somewhat ugly in recent weeks, exposing the racial divide in the party.
But voter dissatisfaction with unified GOP control in Washington, D.C., could make both candidates competitive in the general election, especially if Texas Republicans choose the far-right candidate, said Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau.
“If voters reject John Cornyn, Democrats have a chance,” said Mollineau, co-founder and partner of D.C.-based strategy firm Rokk Solutions. “It’s a credible shot. It’s not a guarantee. It’s not a slam dunk. But I think there is a window and an opening given the mood of the country and the state of the economy.”
North Carolina and Arkansas
The primary for the U.S. Senate seat in North Carolina, which the retiring Tillis holds, will likely be far less explosive than in Texas.
Former Gov. Roy Cooper is poised to become the Democratic nominee.
Whatley, who was and has been endorsed by Trump and Thune more than the rest of the Republican field combined With $5.2 million, he is considered the frontrunner on the Republican side. Don Brown, a former U.S. Navy attorney general’s officer, raised $146,000, the second-highest amount among Republicans.
Cotton is expected to win the Republican primary in Arkansas. He will face the winner of the Democratic contest between Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar and Farmer Hallie Shoffner.
