Attention is focused heavily on the presidential candidates, and not without reason; the race for the presidential chair tends to suck the air out of the whole room. But if Donald Trump can get Grover Cleveland himself into a second term, he will need a warm House and Senate to accomplish much. A recent poll of Montana residents by Public Opinion Strategies shows that The Republicans could win this Senate seat in November:
📊 MONTANA survey by @POStrategies for the Montana GOP
senate
🟥 Sheehy: 51%
🟦 Testers (incl.): 44%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
governor
🟥 Gianforte (incl.): 53%
🟦 Fines: 34%
—
Attorney General
🟥 Knudsen (incl.): 50%
🟦 Alka: 36%
—
August 18th – 20th | 500 LV | MoE: ±4.38%https://t.co/vQSslMNToA pic.twitter.com/Gd91nXMLIM— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) 25 August 2024
According to this poll, Republican Tim Sheehy is leading incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by a fairly wide margin, 51 percent to 44 percent. The Republican candidates for governor and attorney general are ahead by even greater margins. According to previous polls of this type, Sheehy was also ahead by a comfortable margin. Really clear policy Data:
- Rasmussen Reports, 13.8.-20.8.: Sheehy +5
- KULR-TV (NBC), Aug. 10-12: Sheehy +7
- The Hill/Emerson, 5/8-6/8: Sheehy +2
- Remington Research: June 29th – July 1st: Sheey +5
It looks like the odds for a Republican win in Montana are pretty good. And this race, like any potential Senate seat, is crucial to Republicans gaining control of the upper house.
See also: New poll shows Republicans have a good chance of winning several Senate seats from the Democrats
Bad news for the Democrats: The Republicans’ chances of conquering the Senate are even better
Don’t believe the hype! Republicans can make huge gains in the Senate
As for the presidential race, the last time Montana gave its Electoral College votes to a Democrat was in 1992, in Bill Clinton’s first victory. At the time of this writing, Donald Trump is ahead of Kamala Harris in Montana, in the latest Real Clear Politics Survey averageby 19 points, 56.5 to 37.5. That means “safe Republican.”
There is some other fascinating information in the Survey on Public Opinion StrategiesFirst, the direction of the state:
First of all, would you say in general that things are going in the right direction in Montana or have they gone down a very wrong path there?
34 % Right direction
58% Wrong track
6% Don’t know
2% Rejected
The question is about “things in Montana,” but these types of questions are more reflective of people’s moods toward the nation as a whole. More fascinating, however, is the question about the most crucial issues (note that only the top five issues are listed here):
Next up: Which TWO of the following issue areas would be MOST IMPORTANT to you in deciding how to vote in the November election? Is it…
Ranking by % 1st choice
1. Comb
21 % 39 % Illegal immigration
18% 34% Inflation and cost of living
8% 28% Abortion
13% 31% Jobs and economy
7% 16% Education and schools
The two most crucial issues – illegal immigration and inflation/cost of living – are areas where Republicans generally do better in the polls. And illegal immigration is a balmy topic nationwide this year after nearly four years of having the borders effectively open.
Things are looking good for Republicans in Big Sky Country. Let’s hope this is repeated across the country.
