Inadequate funding and controversial measures in a budget proposal could jeopardize what Americans know about themselves through federal government data collection, statisticians and demographers warn in a novel report and letter to U.S. congressional leaders.
“Our fundamental assessment is that federal statistics are at risk,” said the report released Tuesday by the American Statistical Association in collaboration with George Mason University.
According to the report, most of the 13 major U.S. statistical offices have lost more than 14 percent of their purchasing power over the past 15 years, limiting their ability to innovate.
The agencies that calculate everything from the monthly unemployment rate to the 10-year head count that determines the distribution of political power and the $2.8 trillion in government funds also need to be better protected from political interference, the report says.
For example, before the 2020 census, the Trump administration tried to add a citizenship question to the questionnaire. Although the U.S. Supreme Court stopped it, some experts believe the controversy contributed to the country’s census undercounting the Hispanic population by nearly 5%.
Meanwhile, other advocates and users of federal data are concerned about a budget bill being considered by the Republican-dominated House Budget Committee on Tuesday. The bill would exclude people living in the country illegally from the redistricting count – even though the Constitution’s 14th Amendment requires that “the whole number of persons” be counted in each district. And it would limit the number of requests agencies can make to ask them to participate in surveys and censuses.
“This is stuff on the level of ‘break glass in case of emergency,'” says Allison Plyer, chief demographer at The Data Center, a nonprofit research organization based in New Orleans.
The measure of not counting people who are in the country illegally is unconstitutional. And limiting the number of contact requests to respondents would have a “devastating” impact on data quality, as it would result in even more people being missed, the leaders of the Census Project, a coalition of business, civil rights and community groups, said in a letter to the chairmen of the House Budget Committee last week.
The wording of the budget bill provides for a maximum of two contacts by authorities in the context of the census and surveys. These include the American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey, which support determine the monthly unemployment rate.
The American Community Survey is the most comprehensive survey of life in America and provides the basis for countless economic decisions by collecting information on topics such as commute times, internet access, family life, income and education levels. Typically, more than three follow-up contacts are required to obtain a response. The Current Population Survey requires about 2.5 follow-up contacts. If the 2020 census had been confined to just two invitations to respondents to participate, the nation’s census would have missed 17 million households, the Census Project’s letter said.
“If the Census Bureau is limited in the number of contacts it can make, the data becomes completely unreliable,” Plyer said. “Data doesn’t grow on trees. It doesn’t come to us like magic. This basic information cannot be reproduced.”
In May, the Republican-dominated House of Representatives passed a separate bill that would exclude noncitizens from the census, which is used to decide how many House seats and Electoral College votes each state gets. The bill is unlikely to pass the Democratic-dominated Senate, the White House opposes it, and it would likely be challenged in court because the Constitution requires that all people be counted in apportionment.
The current budget proposal allocates $1.3 billion to the U.S. Census Bureau, below the Biden administration’s $1.6 billion request for fiscal year 2025. This shortfall could complicate preparations for the 2030 census, the Census Project leaders said in their letter.
But Republican Rep. Harold Rogers of Kentucky said Tuesday during a House committee hearing that the budget proposal adequately funds agencies while limiting “government overreach by Washington bureaucrats.”
In the run-up to the 2020 census, budget cuts in the mid-2010s forced the Census Bureau to cut back on dress rehearsals for the count and cancel tests of novel methods for counting people in congregate living settings such as dormitories, prisons and nursing homes. Advocates fear the same thing could happen with test runs planned for the 2030 census in 2026, and without adequate funding could lead to an undercount of minority groups.
“If there isn’t funding next year for widespread testing in 2026, there will be no way to make up for lost research and testing in the future,” said Terri Ann Lowenthal, a former congressional staffer who advises on census issues. “If that happens, it will be déjà vu all over again.”
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Follow Mike Schneider on social media: @MikeSchneiderAP.
