TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Donald Trump will return to the U.S. presidency at a time of unprecedented conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East. He vowed to fix the problem.
But Trump’s longstanding forceful support for Israel, coupled with his insistence during the campaign on a quick end to the war in Gaza, the isolationist forces in the Republican Party and his penchant for unpredictability raise a mountain of questions about what impact his second presidency will have the region will have at this crucial moment.
Unless an elusive ceasefire is reached before the inauguration, Trump will ascend to the country’s highest office as a brutal war still rages in Gaza and Israel presses forward with its offensive against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The conflagration between Iran and Israel shows no sign of abating, nor does Israel’s conflicts with Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen, and Iran’s nuclear program remains a key concern for Israel.
Trump says he wants peace, but how?
Throughout his campaign, Trump vowed to bring peace to the region.
“Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” Trump said of the conflict in Gaza in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in April.
Israel began the war in response to Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, in which militants killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250, dozens of whom were still in the Gaza Strip. According to Gaza health authorities, more than 43,000 people have been killed in the Israeli offensive. The count does not distinguish between civilians and fighters, although more than half of the dead are women and children.
The war has unleashed a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, pushed Israel into increasing international isolation with two world courts considering war crimes charges, and sparked a wave of protests on American campuses that have fueled the debate over the U.S. role as Israel’s main military and military power have been fueled by diplomatic supporters.
International mediators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar have tried unsuccessfully to bring about a lasting ceasefire.
Still, Trump has repeatedly called on Israel to “finish the job” and destroy Hamas — but has not said how.
“Does the termination of the assignment mean that you have a free hand to deal with the remnants of Hamas? Or does finishing the work mean the war must end now?” asked David Makovsky, director of the Arab-Israeli Relations Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “That’s part of the puzzle here.”
Netanyahu is pinning his hopes on a pro-Israel Trump administration
There is also uncertainty about how Trump will work with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump offered broad support for the Israeli leader’s hardline policies, including the unilateral withdrawal from a deal intended to curb Iran’s nuclear program, which Netanyahu long opposed.
Trump also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, reinforcing his claim to the disputed city as well as Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, which Syria captured in the 1967 Middle East war. He put forward a peace plan with the Palestinians, who were widely seen as affable to Israel. Settlement construction in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, seen as an obstacle to Palestinian statehood, increased sharply under his presidency.
Trump also helped secure agreements between Israel and four Arab countries to normalize relations that were not contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood – a major victory for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader hopes to repeat these successes with an agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The leaders clashed after Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden after the 2020 election – a move Trump saw as a slight to his committed ally, even though Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida this year.
Under Biden, the US has been critical at times, slowing some arms shipments in response to Israel’s behavior in Gaza. Netanyahu likely hopes that Trump’s return will ease any restrictions on Israel pursuing its war goals. The American leader could also work to challenge a possible international arrest warrant against Netanyahu for war crimes. And a smoother relationship with Washington could assist bolster popular support for the Israeli leader.
“He has the most pro-Israel record of any president,” said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “There is hope that there will be more of this.”
Neither Netanyahu nor Trump have a clear vision for the post-war Gaza Strip
Netanyahu leads a far-right government whose key members have vowed to overthrow his rule if the war in Gaza ends in anything other than the destruction of Hamas. They support relocation in Gaza and are enthusiastic about a Trump presidency – and their influence will only escalate after Netanyahu fires his defense minister over his more pragmatic approach to the conflict.
Their influence on the government and on Netanyahu’s political future explains why Netanyahu has not articulated a clear vision for a postwar Gaza.
The Biden administration has advocated for the war-ravaged area to be governed by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank. Netanyahu has rejected that idea and insists on the Israeli military’s right to operate there.
Trump did not outline a clear vision, although he said developers could make Gaza “better than Monaco” because it had “the best location in the Middle East, the best water, the best of everything.”
Diana Buttu, a former adviser to Palestinian leaders, said the lack of a firm U.S. vision for Gaza, coupled with a politically powerful far right in Israel, makes the future bleak for the people of Gaza and for Palestinians in general.
“I don’t see this as a president who cares about the Palestinians,” she said.
Will Trump assist defend Israel against Iran or will he choose America first?
In Lebanon, Israel is fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah with a ground invasion and attacks on Hezbollah targets. The militant group has fired thousands of rockets and drones into Israeli communities, killing dozens and displacing 60,000. The Israeli offensive has now displaced over a million people in Lebanon and killed more than 3,000 people.
The US’s mediation efforts were unsuccessful there too. Trump, who has a Lebanese-American son-in-law, recently posted on the social platform X that as president he would “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon.”
But a crucial question is how much Trump will allow his “America First” instincts to influence him.
The United States played a central role in diplomatic efforts throughout the war and played an even more significant role in helping Israel defend itself against Iran and its allies.
The U.S. has sent military assets to the region, helped Israel thwart two missile attacks by Iran, and even has U.S. soldiers in Israel operating a sophisticated air defense system. But any effective Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a target Iran avoided in its attack last month, will likely require greater U.S. military commitment.
Accusations that Iran hacked campaign officials and concerns about Tehran’s ability to operate violence against Trump or members of his administration could deepen his antipathy toward the country.
While Trump has indicated he will focus on domestic affairs, the Middle East could be an outlier.
He enjoys broad support from evangelical Christians who are staunchly pro-Israel, and his son-in-law and former adviser Jared Kushner was a prominent voice in support of the country in his first term.
“Since Trump will likely navigate between these forces based primarily on his intuition,” said Udi Sommer, an expert on U.S.-Israel relations at Tel Aviv University, “uncertainty will likely dictate his approach.”
