Election observers were shocked on Sunday when the New York Times and Sienna College released a poll that changed perceptions of the presidential campaign.
Kamala Harris, who entered the race in July after ousting Joe Biden, was ahead in most polls, with the general perception being that she had a narrow, if not indefinite, lead. However, according to this latest poll, Trump is beating Harris both in a direct comparison and in a field of several candidates.
SEE ALSO: Scott Jennings attacks Kamala Harris so violently that Van Jones can only smile
🚨NEW SURVEY🚨
New York Times poll of likely voters
Trump: 48%
Harris 47%Conducted from 3 to 6 September, n = 1,695 pic.twitter.com/lUlwKojBL8
– Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) 8 September 2024
🇺🇲 NYT/Siena National Poll Crosstabs
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
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Full vote
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stone: 1%
——
Crosstabs
• Biden voters 2020: Harris 92-6%
• Trump voters 2020: Trump 97-2%
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 49-40%
—
• Men: … pic.twitter.com/jtPBwxRIBq— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) 8 September 2024
Some will no doubt try, but anyone trying to pick apart those crosstabs listed in the second post above will just come across as desperate. I am firmly against “de-polling” and de-polling crosstabs. I think you take a poll for what it is, add its topline to the average, and move on. When someone starts picking apart crosstabs and trying to “re-weight” a poll, they are playing with fire and setting themselves up for disappointment.
So if you are looking for realistic Crosstabulations to give credence to a poll, it’s tough to find one in recent months that looks more realistic than the one above. That’s especially true for the voting preferences of whites, blacks and Hispanics. If that result showed Trump getting 20 percent of the black vote, that might be cause for pause, but 13 percent is quite credible given the progress he’s made with black men. The same goes for the rest of the demographic breakdown. From education to age, everything Look credible.
So what is the reason for Trump’s rise? It seems that low-turnout voters are giving him an advantage. He is ahead of Harris by 49 percent to 40 percent of respondents who “did not vote in 2020.” This underscores how crucial it is for Republicans to vote. If these people don’t vote, Harris could easily win.
Finally, the positive numbers are a boon for Trump. In many other polls, Harris has gone from being one of the most unpopular politicians in contemporary history to being at just 50 percent or even as low as 50 percent just by announcing her candidacy. The popularity gap in this poll is much more understandable.
The stakes for Tuesday’s debate have now reached astronomical heights. Harris will not be able to sit idly by, increasing the likelihood that she will make a major mistake. The opposite is true for Trump, who is more likely to freak out and put in a destitute performance. before That poll came out. He now has every reason to follow the same strategy he used in the first debate: let his opponent self-destruct. He doesn’t need a home run. He just needs to let Harris talk. She’ll do the rest.
