A new AP-NORC poll shows President Donald Trump’s favorability among Hispanic adults has fallen since the start of the year, a potential warning sign from a key constituency that contributed to his victory in the 2024 election.
The October poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 25% of Hispanic adults have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of Trump, compared with 44% in an AP-NORC poll conducted just before the Republican’s second inauguration. The share of Hispanic adults who say the country is moving in the wrong direction has also increased slightly in recent months, from 63% in March to 73% now.
The shift could cause problems for Republicans looking to consolidate support from this group in future elections. Many Hispanic voters were motivated by economic concerns in last year’s election, and the new poll shows that despite Trump’s promise of an economic revival, Hispanic adults continue to feel greater financial strain than Americans overall. According to AP VoteCast, a survey of interviews with registered voters, Hispanic voters made up 10% of the electorate in 2024, and the number of eligible Hispanic voters has increased rapidly in recent decades.
Alejandro Ochoa, 30, is a warehouse worker in Adelanto, California. He identifies as a Republican and voted for Trump last year, but now he’s unhappy with the president. He criticized some of Trump’s budget cuts, adding that food costs were too high and buying a home was still out of his reach.
“He basically relied on the nostalgia of, ‘Hey, remember before COVID? Things weren’t that expensive,'” Ochoa said. “But now it’s like, OK, you’re in office. I’m still getting dirty at the grocery store. I’m still spending a crazy amount of money. I’m trying to cut corners where I can, but that bill is still crazy expensive.”
Declining approval of the economy and immigration
Hispanic voters leaned toward Trump in the last election, although a majority still supported Democrat Kamala Harris: According to AP VoteCast, 43% of Hispanic voters nationwide voted for Trump, up from 35% in the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden.
But the poll now shows that Hispanic adults are slightly less approving of Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration – two issues that were his biggest strengths in the presidential campaign last year – and their views of his overall performance as president have also deteriorated slightly.
In March, 41% of Hispanic adults approved of the way Trump carried out his job as president, but now that figure is down to 27%.
In recent months, Hispanic communities have also been the target of the president’s harsh immigration tactics. The poll found that Hispanic adults’ approval of his handling of immigration has declined slightly since March.
Some see a connection between the two problems. Trump’s attacks on immigration have hit both low-wage and high-skilled workers at a time when the economy is already uncertain due to his erratic trade policies.
Fel Echandi of Winter Haven, Florida, is a behavioral specialist who identifies as a Democrat but sometimes votes for Republican candidates. He said he appreciated Trump’s views on transgender issues, including restroom access for transgender women.
However, he fears that Trump’s immigration policies will cause fear among many people and will have a negative impact on the economy.
“Many people rely on immigrants to work in certain areas,” Echandi said. “When that’s affected, all prices go up. Our food costs more because there’s a cost to getting people to do that work.”
The survey found that Hispanic adults experience particularly high levels of financial stress compared to the rest of the country. Compared to U.S. adults overall, more Hispanics say the cost of food, housing and health care, as well as the amount of money they receive, are “major” sources of stress.
Approval among Hispanic Republicans is falling slightly
Views of Trump have worsened a bit, even among Hispanic Republicans.
In the most recent poll, 66% of Hispanic Republicans said they have a “very” or “somewhat” positive view of Trump. That’s a slight shift from Trump’s position in a September 2024 AP-NORC poll, when 83% of Hispanic Republicans viewed him at least “somewhat” favorably. White Republicans, on the other hand, did not change their opinion of Trump during the same period.
Another potentially worrisome sign for the president is that younger Hispanics and Hispanic men – two groups that voted particularly strongly for him in last year’s election – also view him somewhat more negatively.
About two-thirds of Hispanic adults under 45 and Hispanic men now view Trump unfavorably, according to the new poll. That’s a slight raise compared to September 2024, when about half in both groups had a negative opinion of him.
Further concerns about Trump’s disordered second term were raised in interviews.
Teresa Covarrubias, a 65-year-old retired teacher from Los Angeles, feels like things are going in the wrong direction and said she is concerned that some of Trump’s actions could violate norms and impact social safety net programs.
“My biggest concern is the disregard for the constitution and the law and then also the level of nepotism,” said Covarrubias, who is an independent voter. “The people at the top are just abusive and taking, and then there’s the rest of us.”
Hispanic adults are more likely to prioritize immigration
There are signs in the poll that Trump’s tough approach to immigration could turn off some Hispanic adults. In recent months, the president has doubled down on his promise of mass deportations and stepped up crackdowns on Latino neighborhoods in cities like Chicago.
The survey found that Hispanic adults in general are more likely to say immigration is an crucial issue to them personally. About two-thirds of Hispanic adults prioritize immigration, compared with about 6 in 10 white adults and about half of black adults.
And although their views on immigration enforcement are not uniform, Hispanic adults are far less likely to support the deportation of all immigrants living in the U.S. illegally than U.S. adults overall. About a quarter of Hispanic adults support the policy, the new poll found, while about half of them oppose it and the rest have no opinion. Among U.S. adults overall, about 4 in 10 support deporting all immigrants to the U.S. illegally, while 34% oppose it and about 2 in 10 have no opinion.
Rick Alvarado, 63, a Republican who lives in San Diego, said he still supports Trump and praised his measures to cut public spending. Alvarado, a real estate manager, supports Trump’s crackdown on immigrants in cities like Los Angeles and Chicago and says he believes some immigrants are involved in organized crime.
However, he added that he would like to see a solution for people without criminal records to obtain legal immigration status.
“The productive people should have a way to stay here somehow,” Alvarado said.
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The AP-NORC poll of 1,289 adults was conducted Oct. 9-13. A sample was used from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is intended to be representative of the US population. The overall sampling error rate for adults is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The overall sampling error rate for Hispanic adults is plus or minus 6.9 percentage points.
