WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday marks the country’s first major election day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, and his leadership and policies dominated the debate in nearly every race — even if the Republican was not on the campaign trail.
The biggest contests are in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states electing governors this year. Trump lost both last fall, but voters in both parties have historically elected Republicans to statewide office. GOP candidates have aligned themselves closely with the president, betting that his huge victory last year can still pave the way to victory this time, even if the party that holds the White House typically struggles in off-year elections.
Strong Democratic showings, meanwhile, could pave the party’s path back to national prominence – even if its leading candidates have taken very different approaches, from sticking to a moderate line to fully supporting government spending to improve voters’ lives.
In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who has already been the subject of Trump’s criticism could become a national star if he is elected mayor. And California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House map as Democrats seek to counter a push by Trump to reshape the balance of power in Congress.
Here’s what you should check out:
A referendum on Trump
The president has not set foot in Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but both campaigns so far are likely to be viewed as referendums on Trump’s office.
Last year, his tariffs rocked the global economy, his “big, beautiful” budget threatened millions of dollars in rural hospitals and health insurance coverage, he implemented massive cuts to the federal workforce, and he sent the National Guard to several American cities.
The president endorsed Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race but held only two teleconferences on his behalf, including one on Monday evening. Trump also hosted a tele-town hall for Virginia Republican candidates on the eve of election night, but made no mention of Earle-Sears and spoke mostly in favor of the Republican nominee for attorney general. Early in the campaign, Trump offered a half-hearted endorsement of Earle-Sears, saying he supported the Republican gubernatorial candidate even though he did not operate her name. Still, Earle-Sears was a vocal supporter of Trump and his policies, as was Ciattarelli in New Jersey.
Despite Trump’s distance, a good night for Republicans would almost certainly be viewed as a political victory for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” policies. A bad night for Republicans would give Democrats a sturdy — if perhaps fleeting — start to the midterm elections, which are still a year away.
A recent democratic playbook?
Tuesday offers a test of two very different Democratic philosophies expressed by the candidates: either toeing a moderate line or fully embracing far-left progressivism. But it also presents a scenario in which both or neither could be successful – making it harder to draw conclusions going forward.
The party’s candidates for governor, Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, have largely focused on the economy, public safety and health care and distanced themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies.
A growing number of Democratic leaders believe the moderate approach is key to revitalizing the party after the Republican Party won the White House and both chambers of Congress last year. Tuesday could be an essential indicator of whether they are right.
Both Sherrill and Spanberger downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and opposition to Trump’s attack on American institutions. Spanberger hardly mentions Trump’s name during the election campaign.
Both also have resumes that could appeal to the middle.
Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty Navy helicopter pilot before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years working undercover overseas. They have highlighted their public safety backgrounds in direct response to Republicans’ attack that Democrats are tender on crime.
Democrats have focused primarily on rising food, energy and health care costs, which Trump has struggled to control.
A recent star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City
That approach is markedly different from the mayoral race in New York City, where progressives are energized by Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim lawmaker who describes himself as a democratic socialist and supports radical changes to combat economic inequality.
His bold agenda and inspirational approach have attracted thousands of volunteers in New York and led the likes of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to campaign for him. It has also spooked some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community who otherwise support Democrats but reject some of Mamdani’s previous statements about the accumulation of personal wealth and Israel.
Mamdani is in a tight race against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent candidate after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is expecting a huge surprise.
And while many progressives are excited, some Republicans in Washington are also quietly cheering for a Mamdani victory. Republican campaign committees have already run attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, linking them to Mamdani and his far-left policies.
Trump endorsed Cuomo, posting online Monday night: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You have to vote for him and hope he does a fantastic job. He’s capable of it, Mamdani isn’t!”
This came after Trump mocked Mamdani almost daily. GOP activists are also excited about the opportunity to operate it to attack many more Democrats just before next year’s midterm elections — just as they have done with progressive Democrats like House members like Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.
The shutdown effect
Election Day comes amid a government shutdown that has already lasted more than a month. Both parties in Congress are blaming each other, and there is no end in sight.
Will it matter?
Virginia is home to more than 134,000 federal workers, many of whom have been furloughed or forced to work without pay. According to the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, New Jersey employs nearly 21,000 federal workers, with a total of more than 2 million such government workers nationwide.
Both numbers are more than enough to make for a close election.
At the same time, millions of people could lose critical food assistance from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), giving voters another urgent reason to express their displeasure.
Polls show that Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, are receiving slightly more blame than Democrats – although there is plenty of frustration on both sides.
Trump has taken the extraordinary step of calling on the Senate to eliminate the filibuster rules that require a minimum of 60 votes on major legislation to force the government to reopen – even though his party’s leadership considers it a misstep.
A test of the Trump realignment
While Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last fall, there were significant shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey, Trump’s loss narrowed from 16 points in 2020 to less than 6 points in 2024.
These shifts were driven by Trump’s increasing popularity among classic Democratic loyalists: union members, black men, Hispanic voters and younger people. Democrats are particularly at risk in New Jersey, which has one of the largest shares of union households in the country.
If these pro-Trump trends continue this week, Democrats could be in trouble.
But of course Trump is not on the ballot. And the Trump coalition—particularly lower-propensity voters—is typically not represented in the same numbers in years when it is not the presidential candidate.
Democrats are cautiously confident because Trump has not campaigned aggressively in any of the states, reflecting both the president’s tender standing and his allies’ concerns about the viability of Republican candidates – particularly in Virginia.
At the same time, the biggest star of Democratic politics, former President Barack Obama, mobilized voters in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend.
Pennsylvania and California and the Future of Elections
Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three Democratic-backed justices on the state Supreme Court serve another term.
The outcome could shape the seven-member Supreme Court in the country’s most populous swing state and have implications for key cases involving redistricting and voting in midterm elections and the 2028 presidential election.
Incumbents are not listed by party affiliation. The ballot paper simply asks voters to cast a yes or no vote. But spending on the race is expected to top $15 million, showing how essential it is to Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, frequently mentioned as a 2028 presidential candidate, is leading the push to redraw congressional maps to give Democrats up to five more House seats in the upcoming election.
The push is the centerpiece of Democrats’ efforts to counter recent Republican plans in Texas and elsewhere aimed at boosting the GOP’s chances in the fight for control of Congress next year. However, for the recent maps to take effect in 2026, voters must first approve a yes-or-no ballot question known as Proposition 50.
