President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will have a crucial opportunity to reach undecided voters and set the terms of the 2024 presidential campaign at Thursday night’s debate in Atlanta.
Supporters of both camps have already decided which candidate they will support. And since this year’s election is a repeat of 2020, many Americans have already formed a firm and perhaps unshakable opinion about the candidates.
Still, there is a significant group of voters who have not yet decided who they will support in November, said Christopher Stout, a political science professor at Oregon State University, in an interview with States Newsroom.
“On the one hand, opinions about Joe Biden and Donald Trump are firmly entrenched,” Stout said. “On the other hand, there are a lot of people who aren’t interested in politics and this is the first time they’re thinking about the 2024 election.”
A key goal for Biden will be to show voters that the 81-year-old incumbent can be forceful and assertive, Stout and political strategists said.
Trump, 78, could focus on appealing to ideological centrist voters and wavering Republicans who want a conservative candidate but are put off by the former president’s antics.
On the policy front, each candidate has their strengths to play to. Trump will likely pressure Biden on immigration and inflation, while Biden will no doubt be ecstatic to criticize Trump on reproductive rights.
The debate, sponsored by CNN, will be moderated by the network’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash and will begin at 9 p.m. Eastern time without a studio audience. It is scheduled to last 90 minutes and will air live on CNN. A simulcast will also be available on other cable and broadcast networks.
Each candidate’s microphone is muted while the other speaks. No props are allowed, but each man is given a pen, pad and bottle of water. said CNN.
Can Trump be tedious?
With a stable performance, Trump could gain ground among moderate and independent voters.
After winning the 2016 presidential election, Trump lost to Biden in 2020 because Republican-leaning voters were fed up with his unorthodox style and tendency to provoke scandals.
“If he’s boring and looks like a typical politician, that’s going to be a big plus for him,” Stout said. “If he looks like a typical politician and seems more moderate, then there’s a chance to win back a group of voters who used to be Republicans and have since left the party.”
At the same time, Trump is unlikely to suffer too much of a disadvantage if he does deviate from his script, as voters have come to expect unusual comments and behavior, says Republican strategist Doug Heye.
“Donald Trump will say something crazy,” said Heye. “It’s all planned and won’t change anyone’s mind.”
Heye referred to Trump’s recent comments about shark attacks, electric shocks from oversized batteries and taking off his shirt to reveal psychological wounds inflicted on him by political opponents.
In a move reminiscent of his reality show past, Trump has hinted at a possible announcement of his election as Vice President in the debate.
But even if voters expect a certain level of eccentricity from Trump, that won’t aid him win over the undecided voters who will decide the election, says Rodell Mollineau, co-founder and partner at Washington-based strategy firm ROKK Solutions and a seasoned veteran of Democratic campaigns.
“If you’re actually trying to reach voters, I’m not sure how Trump’s ranting and raving, talking about delusional conspiracy theories, is going to help him win over independent voters,” Mollineau said.
If Trump tries to act like a time-honored presidential candidate, he will face another unique challenge: 34 convictions for capital crimes in New York last month and three other criminal cases against him are still pending, including two related to his efforts to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election that led to the January 6, 2021 insurrection.
“I watch him talk about his numerous affairs in court, the conviction and whatever else may or may not be ahead of him,” Mollineau said.
Can Biden be forceful?
Biden faces other questions that he must answer.
Voters have doubts about the incumbent’s abilities, in part because of his age, his tendency to make slip-ups, and the concerted efforts of Republicans and the Republican media to portray Biden as someone who is past his prime.
“I think Biden will be trying, in part, to overcome the image that Trump and Republicans in general have built very successfully,” said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia. “They’ve been working on it for at least five years now, and that’s the image that Biden is too old and physically and mentally incapable of serving another four years as president.”
Biden countered this narrative – at least temporarily – with an exuberant performance at the State of the Union Address this year, several observers said.
Bringing this energy to the table will aid him shape the debate in a positive way, they said.
But Heye noted that the president’s performance in the State of the Union address was not reflected in better polls, despite rave reviews from Democrats.
“The reaction from Democrats was: This was a turning point,” Heye said. “And if we look at the polls, the game hasn’t changed at all.”
Biden would also benefit from reminding voters of his political record and comparing it to Trump’s, Stout and Mollineau say.
“It will benefit him if he can talk about politics,” Stout said. “People don’t know what he’s done, and so maybe there’s hope of informing people and influencing the electorate.”
Biden should specifically target left-leaning voters by reminding them of his successes on climate and the environment and his administration’s efforts to create jobs, Stout said.
Mollineau added that Biden must remind voters of Trump’s turbulent tenure and Biden’s past successes, but he must also add to that message the recognition that many Americans are dissatisfied.
An early debate
The debate, broadcast from CNN’s headquarters in Georgia, comes much earlier in the election cycle than usual, even before the party conventions that normally mark the start of the general election.
The candidates agreed to the unusual schedule after rejecting a proposal from the Commission on Presidential Debates, a nonpartisan organization that has organized these events for decades and typically features three meetings between presidential candidates and one between incoming vice presidents.
All debates usually take place in the fall.
This year’s June schedule could provide candidates with a chance to chart the course of the campaign, as many voters are following the campaign for the first time.
But the nearly 19 weeks remaining until Election Day could also mean that a candidate with a tender performance has time to recover, or that a forceful performance could fade.
“I don’t think anyone is going to win or lose the election this week,” Mollineau said.
Bullock, the professor from Georgia, disagreed.
With both candidates unpopular and voters feeling like they are choosing who they see as the “lesser of two evils,” either candidate could be the “last straw that breaks the camel’s back” for a voter, he said.
“You might hear something out of one of them and say, ‘Yeah, that’s it,'” Bullock said. “That’s the straw that breaks the camel’s back. I can’t support that. It helps me decide whether I’m going to go with the other person.”
Ross Williams contributed to this report.
