WASHINGTON (AP) — American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep concern about what could follow, including the possibility of political violence, attempts to overturn the election results and their broader impact on democracy, according to a up-to-date poll.
The results of the poll, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, reflect ongoing concerns about the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results to accept, a mob of his supporters stormed the US Capitol in a violent attempt to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.
About four in 10 registered voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. A similar proportion are concerned about legal efforts to achieve this. And about one in three voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to prevent the final release of results.
Relatively few voters — about a third or fewer — are “not very” or “not at all” worried about any of this happening.
Trump continued to lie about fraud costing him re-election four years ago and is again predicting that the only way he can lose this time is if the election is rigged against him – a strategy he has pursued since he first ran for office. His allies and the Republican National Committee, which he reshaped, have filed lawsuits across the country that could be a potential prelude to post-election legal challenges if he loses.
“I thought after January 6, 2021, the GOP would be smart enough to reject him as the nominee,” Aostara Kaye of Downey, California, said of Trump. “And since they didn’t, I think it just encouraged him to believe he can do anything and they’ll still be loyal to him.”
Many voters believe Trump won’t back down if he loses
Trump’s sweeping attempts to reject the will of voters and remain in power after his defeat in 2020 have led to fears that he will again fail to concede if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nearly 9 in 10 voters said the loser of the presidential election would be obliged to concede once every state had counted its votes and resolved legal challenges, including about 8 in 10 Republicans. But only about a third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.
Democrats and Republicans have very different views on the matter: About two-thirds of Republican voters believe Trump would concede, compared to only about one in 10 Democrats.
The same concern does not apply to Harris. Nearly 8 in 10 voters said Harris would accept the results and concede if she loses the election, including a solid majority of Republican voters.
Democrats and Republicans disagreed over who would weaken democracy
Members of both parties have grave concerns about how American democracy might evolve depending on the outcome of the November election.
Overall, about half of voters believe Trump would “a lot” or “somewhat” weaken democracy in the U.S. if he wins, while about 4 in 10 said the same of Harris.
Not surprisingly, Americans were deeply divided ideologically. About 8 in 10 Republicans said another Trump term would strengthen democracy “a lot” or “somewhat,” while a similar share of Democrats said the same about a Harris presidency.
About 9 in 10 voters from each party said the opposing party’s candidate would likely weaken democracy at least “somewhat” if elected.
Kaye, a retired health care worker, called Trump an “existential threat to the Constitution.” One prospect that she said scares her is that if Trump wins, his up-to-date administration will likely no longer have the guardrails that were in place in the last administration.
Republican voter Debra Apodaca, 60, of Tucson, Arizona, said Harris posed a greater threat to democracy. She said President Joe Biden’s administration has placed too much of a priority on foreign aid and failed to take care of its own people.
“We just send our tax money everywhere. It’s not about staying here. “Why don’t we take care of America?” she said. “Why should we pay taxes if we just send it away?”
That lack of concern also extends to the border, she said, adding that a Harris victory would mean “the end of the Border Patrol.”
The attack on the Capitol on January 6th is a dividing line
Part of what is dividing voters’ views of American democracy is the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6 and the question of who is responsible for it. Democrats and independents are much more likely than Republican voters to place “a lot” or “quite a lot” of responsibility on Trump.
Susan Ohde, an independent Chicago voter and financial retiree, said she was worried that “crazy people are buying the misinformation that’s being given to them,” which would lead to another such attack.
Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, Calif., said other issues are more essential in this year’s election. She said her main concern is the economy and feels high prices, particularly in her home state, are driving away businesses and creating a dependency on the government. It’s a dependency Harris wants to maintain, said Minardi, a child and family services advocate.
Views of the January 6 attack are not the only ones on which voters are divided along ideological lines. Following Trump, a majority of Republicans claim that Biden was not legitimately elected. Almost all Democrats and about seven in 10 independents believe Biden was legitimately elected.
Other aspects of the political system are also controversial
This year’s presidential campaign has highlighted an aspect of the American political system that some consider undemocratic: the apply of the Electoral College to elect the president instead of the popular vote. Trump and Harris have focused their campaign rallies and advertising on seven battleground states that represent just 18% of the country’s population.
About half of voters believe the possibility that a candidate could become president by winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote is a “major problem” in U.S. elections. As with many other issues, the question reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the possibility of a split between the Electoral College and the electoral vote is a major problem, compared to about a third of Republicans.
Debra Christensen, 54, a home health aide and Democrat from Watertown, Wisconsin, opposes the Electoral College, which could give Trump the White House even if he loses the popular vote for a third time.
“In this day and age of technology, why can’t we give one person a voice,” she said.
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The survey of 1,072 adults was conducted October 11-14, 2024. A sample was used from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is intended to be representative of the US population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
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