Minnesota Governor Tim Walz had an astonishing success as the Democratic vice presidential candidate despite Republican attacks on his performance in office and in the military.
Walz has a positive net popularity rating of 5 points, according to Averages from Decision Desk HQwhich is striking since many of the top politicians around him are underwater.
Walz’s Republican rival, Sen. J.D. Vance (Ohio), averages a net popularity rating of minus 9 points (his positive rating minus negative rating). Leading the presidential candidates, former President Trump is at minus 10 points, and Vice President Harris’ positive and negative ratings are virtually tied. President Biden’s net popularity rating is minus 20 points.
Although Walz was unknown to many voters according to early polls, observers attribute his success in the popularity contest to his down-to-earth profile on Harris’s resurgent candidacy as Vance struggles to establish his brand alongside the controversial Trump.
Now, with less than 90 days to go until the election, Walz faces the challenge of maintaining that momentum. Political observers say he can do so by focusing heavily on his folksy Midwestern persona, increasing his name recognition across the country and putting up a robust showing in the vice presidential debate in October.
In a “vote of sentiment,” the former high school football coach is “on the wave of good sentiment right now,” Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin said of Walz.
“Walz is joining a team that’s on the upswing and I think that’s helped him tremendously to get off to a really strong start. And look at his profile – former high school teacher, coach – he’s got a really down-to-earth profile,” Tulchin said.
On the other side of the convention, Vance had gained national recognition with the success of his best-selling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” and its 2020 film adaptation. But before Walz debuted as Harris’ running mate, he was largely unknown outside his state.
In a survey by ABC News/Ipsos At the end of July, before the announcement, 86 percent of American voters said they either had no opinion or did not know the governor of Minnesota.
A poll by NPR/PBS/Marist The poll, conducted shortly before Walz’s debut, also found that he is significantly less well-known than Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Democratic Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, both of whom were considered among the most promising candidates for the vice presidential nomination.
Nevertheless, Walz was a popular politician in Minnesota. In 2022, he was among the 20 most popular governors in the country, according to Survey by Morning Consult of voters in every state. In 2023, he will fell into this list Top 40, but still had a high popularity rate.
Rolling saw its national profile begins to skyrocket At the end of July, when he went viral for brands the Trump-Vance ticket as “strange”, a unique label after Democrats had long described the campaign as an existential threat to democracy.
The governor’s accessible speaking style has helped him translate his success in Minnesota to his national numbers, observers say, now that he is taking off with Harris.
“For everyone who knew Tim Walz in Minnesota, it’s a real joy to be able to share him with the country now. You can see how he and his brand of politics and his outspoken nature are resonating across the country,” said Democratic strategist Tim Hogan, the former communications director for Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota’s presidential campaign.
Walz has spoken at recent rallies with Harris and in his first solo stops In his campaign, Hogan said, he will draw on his union background, his time as a teacher and his Midwestern roots.
This is a “stark contrast” to Vance, argued Hogan. Although the senator from Ohio shared his experiences growing up in Poverty and addiction in Middletown, Ohio, while running alongside Trump, he is come under criticism out of both sides of the aisle about the background, which he discusses in his memoirs.
Meanwhile, Vance Walz’s military backgroundand accused the Army National Guard veteran, “stolen courage”, as Republican analyze his record in office.
“It’s partly a campaign. Tim Walz wants to raise his profile, introduce himself to millions of Americans in an authentic way, but do it quickly enough so that he doesn’t let Republicans define him completely,” said Abou Amara, a Minnesota lawyer and Democratic analyst.
A ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll The poll released on Friday found that 39 percent of voters viewed Walz positively and 30 percent negatively. This makes his net popularity a positive 9 Figure.
On the other side of the party spectrum, 32 percent of respondents said they had a positive opinion of Vance, while 42 percent had a negative image of him. That gives a net score of minus 10.
A Economist/YouGov survey A poll conducted in recent days found that 44 percent of voters think Walz is qualified to be vice president, while 37 percent said the same of Vance.
Less than a quarter of respondents said they believe Vance improves Trump’s chances of winning in November, while 38 percent say Walz helps Harris. Although running mate candidates typically have little influence on the outcome of presidential elections, observers are keeping a close eye on the respective party contenders after the Democrats’ unprecedented shakeup.
Even though his fame is growing, Walz is still modern to the national stage and has yet to make a name for himself among many Americans.
A Emerson College survey A poll released Thursday found that nearly a quarter of voters still said they had never heard of the Minnesota governor, while only 12 percent said the same about the Ohio senator.
“Walz is still very new to Americans. And even Harris’s transition from vice presidency to nominee still feels very new to many Americans who haven’t been paying much attention and still have questions about who she is, let alone who Walz is,” said Joshua Ulibarri, a Democratic pollster at Lake Research Partners.
Ulibarri attributed part of Walz’s poll success to this novelty.
“A lot of it is just partisanship. They don’t know who Walz is, but they like him because he’s a Democrat and because Harris picked him … and the Democrats at the grassroots level are very enthusiastic about Harris,” he said. “That benefits Walz.”
That theory should apply to Vance, too, but the Republican vice presidential nominee is burdened with the baggage of front-runners that Walz was able to avoid, Ulibarri added.
However, Republican strategist Ford O’Connell ignored Walz’s popularity ratings and promising surveys Harris is ahead of Trump in the contested areas, as “Honeymoon” moment for their campaign.
“I think at the end of the DNC you’re going to see the best numbers of the entire election cycle for Harris, and after Labor Day that honeymoon phase will end,” O’Connell said.
Walz has a high-stakes few months ahead. The Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago next week and the vice presidential debate is now scheduled for October 1. To maintain his momentum, he must continue to build his brand and appeal to voters in the blue wall states and beyond.
“This good-natured, down-to-earth new vibe, the energy to call these Republicans weird and strange – that’s going to end,” Ulibarri said of Walz. “And he’s going to go from being the new governor who’s different and not evil than the other two to someone who could be president.”
