The shutdown became one of the three longest in U.S. history on Friday. MPs said they expected it to drag on and there was little sign of progress in reopening the government.
However, this does not raise the question of what could force lawmakers to sit down at the negotiating table to find a solution, especially if there are several possible pressure points will be a focus for lawmakers in the coming weeks.
Here are some key dates to keep an eye on in the coming weeks that could force action.
Oct. 24: Next paycheck for federal workers
Government workers — whether furloughed or riding out the shutdown — are expected to miss their first full paycheck on Oct. 24, increasing pressure on lawmakers to act.
Federal employees also received only a portion of their salaries earlier this month, placing a significant burden on the more than two million such employees and their families.
The issue concerns some lawmakers, particularly in states where the percentage of federal employees is higher than others.
“That’s a factor,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
He pointed to a 2019 law that guarantees payback, but acknowledged, “Of course that’s not the same as getting your paycheck on the day you’re entitled to it, and people have to pay tuition, rent and all that.”
Additionally, the White House Budget Office argued in a memo earlier this month that federal employees may not be entitled to additional payment.
A closely watched group of government workers are air traffic controllers, more than 10,000 of whom work unpaid. A “sickness” among air traffic controllers is widely seen as a tipping point for ending the longest shutdown in history in 2019, and air traffic controller absences this time could lead to headaches for air travel and the broader economy.
A controller NewsNation said On Wednesday, they announced they were working as delivery drivers to facilitate pay for their daughter’s college tuition in the dead-end street.
In addition to the pain that government employees and their families will feel, the impact could also ripple through surrounding communities as they cut spending. This, in turn, could put a strain on the grocery stores, cafes, restaurants and retailers that rely on their business.
Lawmakers are taking steps to ease the pressure.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-Wis.) told reporters Thursday that he plans to vote on a bill from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) that would pay “exempt” employees, federal employees who must continue working despite the loss of funding.
But even if this bill passes, it would not facilitate furloughed workers. And it’s far from certain that Democrats would allow it or that the House would return to Washington to take it up.
Oct. 31: Next military paycheck
Trump administration officials dodged a landmine this week when they dug up $8 billion in unused fiscal 2025 research and development funds to make this happen Pay 1.3 million dynamic military personnelto ensure they don’t miss their October 15th paychecks.
Whether they can do it again on Halloween is another question.
Lawmakers are already eyeing that date, raising doubts about whether a similar move by the government is possible.
“This option will no longer be available for your next paycheck in two weeks,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) told reporters Friday.
Congress could intervene here, even if it decided against it before the armed forces payday on October 15th.
The bill that Thune plans to present in the coming days will also pay “exempt” employees Applies to military personnel.
“I’m sure we’ll explore possible options. We’ll give them a chance to pay the military next week.” Thune said. “This will be the first opportunity and then we will see.”
October 31 and November 5: Paychecks for congressional staff
While these are on a lower level in the eyes of lawmakers, they are still very close, as the employees they work closely with every day are uncertain about when they will be paid again – and some may not receive a check any time soon.
Senate aides are the first of the group to be affected as they will miss their first full paycheck on Monday, with lawmakers already missing a chance to prevent that.
It is noteworthy that the salaries of employees in the two chambers are different. Senate salaries are paid twice a month – on the fifth and the 20th.
However, House staff are paid once a month, at the end of each month. That means if House staff don’t receive their pay at the end of October, they won’t receive their next check until after Thanksgiving.
The wage cycle of the house has Questions raised This has been happening for some time, but with the chamber out of session for a month, there is little lawmakers can do about it. The House GOP leadership has also argued that it did its job by passing the “clean” continuing resolution.
“Rent is due on day one,” said a Democratic aide to the House, citing the House’s unusual nature of compensation. “Literally no one else does this.”
November 1: Affordable Care Act open enrollment
This is perhaps the most important date of all listed here.
Healthcare is the driving force behind the entire shutdown. Democrats intend to pressure Republicans to agree on higher ObamaCare subsidies before open enrollment begins.
Republicans argue that the expanded credits won’t expire until the end of the year, but Democrats have made clear they view the start of open enrollment as a key date when Americans using the ObamaCare marketplaces will begin searching for coverage for 2026.
Without congressional action, their premiums are high should rise steeply.
“The American people are facing one of the most devastating crises they have ever experienced in terms of costs, and we still have no concerns about negotiating with them [Speaker Mike Johnson] or with [Senate Majority Leader John Thune]Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said at a press event Thursday. “Republicans are on the defensive, constantly changing their stories and their arguments, but we stand with the American people.”
State exchanges and insurers are I am already sending notifications to those enrolled Explain what lies ahead in the coming weeks and months. And state insurance officials are already saying this is the case too slow to change prices before November 1st.
Republicans believe it will be crucial for them to get past November 1 to reach a deal, as it will deprive Democrats of much of their influence.
But Democrats don’t share that view, saying the pressure on the majority party will only enhance the longer there is no action on health care and the more Americans see how much they will pay for health insurance.
“It is still not possible to stop the full impact of rate hikes after November 1,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Punchbowl news last week. “If we don’t deal with this before November 1, it will be more difficult to find a legislative solution, but there is a strong push from the public to take action.”
November 21: Thanksgiving week
Thanksgiving is still more than a month away, but with no obvious workarounds and early speculation that the shutdown could last several more weeks, the idea that it could last until the end of November isn’t out of the question.
That brings into play what could be a perfect storm for Americans: a shortage of TSA workers and ongoing problems on the air traffic control front during Thanksgiving week — one of the two biggest travel stretches of the year.
This is a nightmare for lawmakers on both sides of the aisle who still remember the air traffic control chaos in early 2019 that forced Trump and his members to reopen the government and end the 35-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.
Those issues, coupled with the prospect of Thanksgiving holiday travel and air traffic controllers going without pay for about a month, may be too much of a bridge for members. In this scenario, they would likely have until the Friday before the holiday to find a deal before the intense travel begins in earnest.
“[O]“One of the many consequences of the Schumer shutdown is that we are seeing even more travel delays,” Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told The Hill. “Thanksgiving week is the biggest travel time of the year.” If Democrats are irresponsible enough to try to force air traffic controllers and the TSA to work without paychecks until Thanksgiving, the traveling public would pay the price.”
“At some point, at least a small portion of Democrats will come to their senses and the lights will come back on,” Cruz continued. “But damn if I know when.”
