It may seem like the presidential election is still a long way off. But that is not the case.
Election Day on November 5 is only about two months away, and significant dates, events and political developments will make the time fly by. The time until then will pass as quickly as summer vacation in most parts of the country.
The first mail-in ballots will be sent to voters this Friday. The first presidential debate is scheduled for September 10. Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is scheduled to be sentenced in his New York hush money trial on September 18. And early in-person voting will begin in some states as early as September 20.
Here’s why the calendar will be moving so quickly: The Democratic and Republican party conventions are over and Labor Day traditionally marks the start of the election season.
Who is ready to vote?
The first ballots usually mailed are to military personnel and voters overseas. Federal law requires this to happen at least 45 days before an election—this year, that’s September 21.
Some states are starting earlier. North Carolina, for example, will begin mailing mail-in ballots to all voters who request them, including military personnel and voters from overseas, starting September 6.
Voter registration deadlines vary from state to state. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, most deadlines are between eight and 30 days before the election. In Georgia, one of this year’s key election battlegrounds, the deadline is October 7.
Almost all states offer some form of in-person voting, but the rules and dates vary considerably. In Pennsylvania, another of the key battleground states, voters can visit their local election office to request, fill out and return a mail-in ballot starting September 16. For those counting the votes, that’s just over two weeks away.
The gloves are taken off
Whether, where and according to which rules the Democratic and Republican presidential and vice-presidential candidates will debate has been controversial for weeks. But now two duels are on the agenda.
Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris have accepted an invitation from ABC News to a debate on September 10 in Philadelphia.
Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Trump’s Ohio Senator JD Vance have agreed to a debate hosted by CBS News on October 1 in New York City.
Harris has raised the possibility of a second debate with Trump, but her proposal appears to be contingent on the Republican candidate’s participation in the September 10 debate. Trump has proposed three presidential debates with various television networks.
Vance has challenged Walz to another vice presidential debate on September 18, but the date has not yet been set.
A possible punishment for Trump
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in his hush-money criminal trial on Sept. 18, but his lawyers have asked the judge to delay the proceedings until after Election Day. A decision is expected early this month.
In a letter to Judge Juan M. Merchan, Trump’s lawyers suggested that staying the verdict as planned, about seven weeks before Election Day, would amount to election interference. On Sept. 16, Merchan is expected to rule on Trump’s motion to overturn the conviction and dismiss the case based on the U.S. Supreme Court’s July ruling on presidential immunity.
Trump was found guilty in May of 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal a $130,000 hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 presidential election. Falsifying business records carries a penalty of up to four years in prison. Other possible penalties include probation, a fine or a conditional release that would require Trump to stay out of trouble to avoid additional penalties.
Next steps in Trump’s other New York cases
On Friday, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals will hear arguments in Trump’s appeal of a jury’s verdict last year that ordered him to pay writer E. Jean Carroll $5 million after finding him guilty of sexually harassing and defaming her. Trump is also appealing a verdict in a second trial in January in which a jury found him guilty of additional defamation charges and ordered him to pay Carroll $83.3 million. Trump’s lawyers have until Sept. 13 to file a brief for the appeal.
On Sept. 26, a New York appeals court will hear oral arguments in Trump’s challenge to a nearly $500 million civil fraud verdict in Attorney General Letitia James’s lawsuit against him. The court typically rules about a month after arguments, meaning a decision could come before the November election. Trump’s lawyers argue that a judge’s Feb. 16 finding that the former president lied for years about his wealth while building his real estate empire was “flawed” and “outrageous.” The state’s lawyers responded in court filings this week that there was “overwhelming evidence” supporting the verdict.
What about Trump’s election and documents cases?
A case in the state of Georgia charging Trump and 18 others with involvement in a wide-ranging plot to overturn his 2020 election defeat in that state is stalled, with no chance of a trial before the election.
Federal prosecutors have filed two criminal cases against Trump, but one was dismissed by a judge last month and the other is likely to be redefined by the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling granting former presidents broad immunity for their official actions.
Special Counsel Jack Smith has appealed U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s dismissal of an indictment accusing Trump of hoarding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and obstructing FBI efforts to get them back. But even if a federal appeals court reopens the case and overturns the judge’s ruling that Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional, there is little chance of a trial this year.
In delicate of the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, a federal judge in Washington must now decide which charges can remain part of the indictment in a separate case accusing Trump of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election and which must be dropped. Deciding which actions are official and which are not is likely to be an arduous process.
Dispute over voting and elections
Even before the first ballots have been cast, both camps are preparing for the election campaign.
The fight over election rules has become a staple of American democracy, but this year it is likely to reach a up-to-date peak. Trump has installed his own leadership team at the Republican National Committee, including an election integrity director who helped him overturn Biden’s 2020 victory. The RNC has filed a barrage of lawsuits challenging election rules and promises more will follow.
Democrats are also mobilizing and assembling a sturdy legal team, including opposing Republican efforts to purge some inactive or non-citizen voters from the voter rolls, arguing that legal voters would be included in the purges.
Republicans have particularly ramped up their rhetoric about allowing noncitizens to vote, even though repeated research has shown that this almost never happens. Some are also pushing to give local election commissions the ability to refuse to certify election results.
All indications are that if Trump loses, these efforts will give him another opportunity to claim the election was stolen from him and try to overturn the will of the voters. But there’s no way to know whether that will happen until the votes are cast.
___
Associated Press writers Kate Brumback and Christina A. Cassidy in Atlanta, Meg Kinnard in Chicago, Nicholas Riccardi in Denver, Michael R. Sisak in New York and Eric Tucker in Washington contributed to this report. AP pollster Ryan Dubicki in New York also contributed.
