A California Highway Patrol officer holds a bag of evidence after arresting a suspect during a stop in Oakland, California. Many factors can affect a police department’s clearance rate, including the speed at which crime labs process evidence. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Police departments’ “clearance rates” – the percentage of cases they declare closed – are one of the most commonly cited measures of how effectively they fight crime. Lawmakers refer to clearance rates at hearings, mayors cite them during police budget debates, and community members often utilize them to assess how well their local department is functioning.
But the numbers can be confusing – and in some cases misleading.
State lawmakers are pushing to better understand and improve clearance rates as crime remains top of mind for many Americans and a dominant issue in statehouses across the country.
Efforts to solve more crimes and support victims have become a infrequent area of bipartisan agreement. This year, lawmakers in Illinois, MichiganMissouri, Pennsylvania and Texas have considered or taken measures that would strengthen police investigative capacity or improve crime data and clearance rate reporting.
A novel one Law Starting in July 2026, Illinois will require all law enforcement agencies to release routine release data on nonfatal shootings and homicides.
Missouri has passed a similar law Lawwhich will take effect in 2026 and directs the state Department of Public Safety to publish clearance rates statewide and create a novel grant program to support police departments solve violent crimes. And Texas lawmakers founded a pilot program to establish rapid DNA testing facilities in two counties.
Lawmakers and law enforcement officials in some of those states say increasing clearance rates is both a public safety priority and a matter of closure to victims and families. Research points out that the likelihood of getting caught is one of the strongest deterrents to committing a crime – making clearance rates a closely watched indicator of how well the justice system is working.
Solving crimes is critical to public safety because it takes repeat offenders off the streets, helps solve cases that never made official reports, provides justice for victims and builds community trust that helps police solve future cases, said Thaddeus Johnson, an assistant professor of criminal justice and criminology at Georgia State University. Johnson, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice, also served as a police officer in Memphis, Tennessee, for a decade.
“The clearance rate reflects the actions of the police, but also the mood and mood of the community – the trust and confidence they have in the police,” Johnson said.
Across the country, clearance rates for violent crimes — including homicides, rape and aggravated assault — have been dwindling for decades. The national murder clearance rate, for example, has fallen from 72% in 2010 1980 to 61% 2024the most recent year for which FBI data is available.
The decline is similar for other major crime categories. In 1980, police solved 49% of rapes and 59% of aggravated assaults. By 2024, these numbers had fallen to 27% and 49%, respectively. Robbery clearance rates also changed over time, increasing from 24% in 1980 to 30% in 2024.
However, these numbers reflect the national average. At the local level, clearance rates vary widely, with some departments solving a huge proportion of cases while others struggle with consistently low numbers.
Police departments in Vermont, Delaware and Idaho had the highest clearance rates for violent crimes in 2024, while New Mexico, Georgia and Mississippi had the lowest, according to crime data from 50 states analysis from the nonpartisan, nonprofit Council of State Governments Justice Center.
Some experts say there are several reasons why eviction rates can fluctuate in one direction or another. Chronic staffing shortages, overstretched detective units, rising caseloads and strained community relations can reduce rates. Strong collaboration between victims and witnesses, better investigative technology and the resolution of older, backlogged cases can boost them.
At the same time, clearance rates – like most crime statistics – have limitations and can be challenging to understand.
Clearance rates, explained
A clearance rate is intended to show how often the police solve reported crimes in a given year. The formula is plain – resolved cases divided by reported cases – but the definition of “resolved” is broad.
Under federal rules, cases can be resolved either by arrest or by “extraordinary measures.” Approving arrests is straightforward: the police make an arrest, file charges and hand the case over to the public prosecutor’s office.
Exemptions apply when police say they have enough evidence to arrest someone but cannot do so for reasons beyond their control – for example, if a suspect has died, fled the country, is being held in another jurisdiction that will not be extradited, or if prosecutors decline to press charges, or if victims choose not to proceed.
Because authorities have wide discretion in the utilize of exemptions, similar cases may be considered “resolved” in one municipality and remain open in another. High special clearance rates can give the impression that more arrests have taken place than are actually the case.
The timing also complicates the statistics. Clearances are counted in the year a case is closed, not the year the crime was committed. This is common in crimes that routinely take months or years to solve, such as homicides or sexual assaults.
As a result, departments that focus on long-term investigations or suddenly receive novel evidence may resolve a number of older cases, making their rate appear higher in the current year, even though newer cases remain unsolved.
Most agencies don’t publicly disclose how many of their annual releases involve older cases, but that doesn’t mean they intentionally manipulate their statistics.
National reporting is also not watertight. The FBI’s crime reporting program is voluntary, and some police departments may submit crime data but skip release data altogether.
Other measures of effectiveness
A release does not guarantee that prosecutors have filed charges or that a case has resulted in a conviction, outcomes that are often most significant to victims and their families. It is also not recorded whether the right person was arrested.
“It’s an imperfect measure of the performance of our criminal justice system,” said Marc Krupanski, director of criminal justice policy at Arnold Ventures, a philanthropic research organization.
It is an imperfect measure of the performance of our criminal justice system.
– Marc Krupanski, Director of Criminal Justice Policy at Arnold Ventures
The clearance rates also say little about the quality of investigations, how consistently the police inform families, how quickly officers respond or whether residents even feel comfortable passing on information.
For these reasons, experts recommend considering other measures, including law enforcement outcomes, police response times, victim satisfaction and levels of community trust.
Some experts say eviction rates are most meaningful when analyzed over time — ideally 10 to 20 years — and adjusted per capita, or per 100,000 residents. Breaking down clearances by arrest and extraordinary means also provides significant context, as does examining how many arrests result in charges or convictions.
Experts say these results reflect both police work and community collaboration – from witness gathering to crime scene processing to evidence preservation – and provide a clearer picture of investigative effectiveness.
Michigan’s proposal
Just last month, Michigan lawmakers introduced bipartisan legislation aimed at increasing the state’s clearance rates. According to the Council of State Governments Justice Center, Michigan police solved 48% of violent crimes last year analysis.
The House And senate Versions of the Violent Crime Clearing Act are sponsored by Republican Rep. Sarah Lightner and Democratic Sen. Stephanie Chang. The legislation would create a statewide grant program for police departments, allowing them to utilize the funds to hire and train investigators or crime lab personnel, modernize evidence collection equipment or records management systems, and assist witnesses in violent crime investigations. Strict clearance rate reporting requirements would also be established.
“No matter where you are on the political spectrum, I think there’s just a general belief that we want crimes solved,” Chang told Stateline.
Rural police departments, which often have fewer staff and confined investigative resources, sometimes face challenges solving certain types of cases. To address this issue, the bill requires that grants be distributed throughout the state and that no single agency receive more than 20% of total program funding in a given year.
Advocates, including Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, say the legislation would provide much-needed support to overburdened departments.
“These aren’t just statistics. These are people. … They’ve been drawn into the criminal justice system as victims, and so for us, every case – and trying to find and close it, whether it’s an armed robbery, a rape or a murder – is critically important,” Bouchard said.
Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at ahernandez@stateline.org.
This story was originally produced by State borderwhich is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network that includes West Virginia Watch, and is a 501c(3) public charity supported by grants and a coalition of donors.
