Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election? OK, that’s a rhetorical question; The answer at this point is, of course, “We don’t know.” There’s a renowned ancient saying that’s renowned and ancient for a reason, and that’s because it’s correct: “The only poll that matters on election day .” But this is something of a pivotal election, with a former president on one ticket and a cackling buffoon on the other; It’s surprising and somewhat confusing that the poll is so close. However, individual surveys say little; There have simply been too many errors and misjudgments by pollsters in recent cycles. But you can glean some information from poll averages and trends that RealClearPolitics puts together, and it’s fun to look at those averages and trends to get a feel for where things are.
So, let’s do this.
The RealClearPolitics Average values for the contested statesas of this writing, in a one-on-one matchup show between Trump and Harris:
- Arizona: Trump +1.4
- Nevada: Harris +1.1
- Wisconsin: Harris +0.8
- Michigan: Harris +0.7
- Pennsylvania: Draw
- North Carolina: Trump +0.6
- Georgia: Trump +1.5
Apply this to the voting card and pass it Pennsylvania votes for Trump – Current polls in PA are Trump trend — gives the Trump/Vance ticket a solid victory, 281-257. But if the Trump team loses Pennsylvania and everything else stays the same, that means Harris/Walz (shudder) win by a narrower margin of 276-262.
See related: New swing state polling data and key dates point to large problems for Harris
Donald Trump returns to Butler, PA – with Elon Musk at his side
It’s tempting to claim that on election night whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election, and that’s probably about ninety percent true. For Trump/Walz, however, there are paths to 270 that do not include Pennsylvania. If Trump loses the Keystone State but takes Michigan, which is currently within the margin of error, he wins 277 to 261. He can also lose Pennsylvania and win Wisconsin (Harris +0.8) and Nevada (Harris +1.1) for one 278-260 win.
None of these are comfortable margins. And if you look at these poll aggregates and take them at face value, Pennsylvania still remains key; If the Trump/Vance team wins the Keystone State (which could prove very correct this year), it will be very complex for Harris/Walz to get enough votes in the red state to win. A win over Georgia would be enough, giving Harris a 273-265 victory, but Trump pulls further ahead in Georgiaand burying the hatchet with Governor Kemp should facilitate him keep this state.
Given the data we have so far, it’s tempting to say that if Trump/Vance wins Pennsylvania and Georgia, we can all get in the game early, because after that the Harris/Walz ticket doesn’t seem to have much of a saving grace their hazelnuts in front of the nutcracker.
But there’s another factor: the 2020 polls are still up after the 2016 election debacle Greatly underestimate Trump’s support in 2020.
So what happened? Were the polls just terribly wrong in 2020? Not dramaticNO. Yes, polls again underestimated Donald Trump’s performancebut the magnitude of this error (about 4 percentage points) was not all that different from previous presidential elections, such as in 2012, when polls underestimated Barack Obama’s margin of victory by almost 4 points. And of course there were much larger survey errors.
Four percentage points; Yes, there is the problem. If those state polls happened to be off by four points, then so be it all the battleground states in Trump’s column, for a convincing, mandate-generating 312-226 victory. That seems unlikely, but not impossible. But Trump voters and Republicans in general are less likely to respond to pollsters, making it all too uncomplicated to underestimate support for Republican candidates.
Of course, we won’t know the accuracy of this year’s polls until after the election. It’s fun to look at polls. It’s compelling. It may give us some clues as to what could happen, and it gives campaigns some ideas on where to focus their efforts. But the only poll that matters, as mentioned above, is the one on Election Day, and this year, as I said in a recent VIP article, turnout will matter:
Turn out. Come from the woods of Maine and Vermont and vote. Turn out. Come down from the mountains of Tennessee and Kentucky and Idaho and Wyoming and vote. Turn out. Come from the deserts of Nevada and Arizona and vote. Turn out. Come from the plains of West Texas and the pine forests of East Texas and vote. Turn out. Come from the lowlands of South Carolina and the hills of Georgia and vote. Turn out. Come from the fields and pastures of Iowa and Nebraska, of Kansas and Oklahoma, and vote. Turn out. From the great forests of northern Minnesota, the high plains and badlands of the Dakotas, come and vote. Come and vote from the New York, California, Illinois and Michigan neighborhoods. Turn out. Take to the country’s highways and byways, the back roads, the dirt roads, wherever you need to go to cast your vote, no matter the weather, no matter how scorching or frigid, no matter whether it’s raining, snowing or … sleet and voting.
So, yes, go out and vote, because come November 6th the polls will mean nothing, but your vote could very well mean everything. And to stay informed, stay on top of the scorching topics, and keep abreast of all the ups and downs of the election, consider signing up for a VIP membership as well. VIP status opens up a wealth of stories and podcasts here at RedState. Remember, with a Gold level account you get access to all of our sister Townhall Media sites: PJ Media, Twitchy, Hot Air, Bearing Arms and Townhall. Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for 50% off.
