Early voting is already underway in many places and there are still two weeks until official election day. Historically, Democrats have had a significant advantage in early voting because Republicans have tended to vote in person and on Election Day. But, as journalist and political analyst Mark Halperin said Tuesday, if current early voting trends continue, Donald Trump will win the presidential race on Election Day.
While Democrats continue to hold a significant lead in voter turnout, Republicans have narrowed their gap compared to 2020, according to the Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Halperinon his 2WAY platformbelieve all the analysts he has spoken to since Monday Trump will win if this trend continues, as Democrats will be unable to challenge Republicans’ early vote gains on Election Day.
Watch Halperin speak on this topic:
Halperin says in part:
If these numbers hold up, in the states where we can even partially understand what the data looks like, we will know that Donald Trump will be president on Election Day.
Of course, Mark Halperin continues to play it sheltered when it comes to the topic:
“As we said yesterday, don’t overlook early voting, okay? That can change. We don’t know exactly who is casting these ballots, how they are voting, etc.,” Halperin added. “But every analyst I’ve spoken to people in the last 24 hours, including people who speak publicly, say if this continues, Donald Trump can’t lose because the Democrats can’t possibly be good enough on Election Day can cut off.”
A warning is in order: Predictions are notoriously complex to make, especially about the future – and that’s exactly what Mark Halperin does here. But if the numbers he cited are correct and the trend continues, it says some engaging things about the state of the race.
First, this is a seismic shift in voting behavior. Democrats have always been very, very good at getting their voters out to vote, regardless of whether those voters had a heartbeat or not. Historically, they have also been very good at preserving votes in states that have early voting. But that’s changing now – the enhance in Republican turnout in early voting is wiping out the Democrats’ previous lead. Republicans are finally learning how to collect their votes. (Full disclosure: Early voting is available in Alaska, but it would require a 30-minute drive, so we will be voting at our local community center on Election Day.)
Second, although there is no polling data to cite, one has to wonder whether this is a sign of voter enthusiasm on the part of Republicans. Faced with the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency, many Republicans are willing to crawl on their hands and knees through a half-mile of junk and broken glass to vote. (Full disclosure: I am one of those voters.)
Enthusiasm can be a huge advantage in an election. And it’s challenging to see too many people excited — really excited — about a Kamala Harris presidency.
See related: Mark Halperin tells Tucker Carlson how bad TDS will get if Trump wins
Election analyst shatters Harris’ dreams and explains why her ‘path to the Electoral College’ may be coming to an end
Of course, all of this can be misleading. This is an odd choice; We are, quite literally, in an undiscovered country in this cycle, with a former president who has been out of office for four years, trying to lead Grover-Cleveland himself to a non-consecutive second term, and the anti faces an undeniably incompetent opponent, who is the incumbent Vice President, but who was not nominated for the candidacy through a normal process and did not receive a single primary vote.
Oh, and she’s also the most left-leaning political figure to ever seek the White House.
Ultimately, many voters on both sides see this as an election in which our national survival is at stake. So all of our assumptions, all of our predictions could be thrown out the window on election day.
Stay tuned. Two more weeks. Stay tuned as all of us here at RedState will be covering it – in great detail.
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