An election forecaster has swung three U.S. Senate races in favor of Democrats in the 2026 midterms, in Ohio, Alaska and North Carolina. (Getty Images)
Democrats’ prospects in three key U.S. Senate races are improving, an influential election watcher said Thursday, although Republicans still want to retain control of the chamber after the midterm elections.
Sabato’s crystal ball predicting election results, three races postponed – in North Carolina, Alaska and Ohio – in favor of the Democrats. After the changes, the University of Virginia-based forecaster considers four contests to be pure coincidence: Alaska, Ohio, Maine and Michigan.
To gain control of the Senate, which Republicans currently hold by a 53-47 majority, Democrats would have to sweep those races and win contests in which they are favored in Georgia, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
That’s a elevated order for Democrats, but it represents the best opportunity the party has seen this midterm cycle.
In North Carolina, the race to replace retiring Republican Thom Tillis is trending toward Democrats due to “overall political factors” such as President Donald Trump’s needy approval ratings, the tip sheet said. Former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, easily won the state’s primary in March and will face former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley in November.
The party that controls the White House is typically at a disadvantage in midterm elections, and Trump’s below-average favorability in North Carolina only makes this race more complex for Republicans, the Crystal Ball authors said.
The three rating changes “make Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall Senate race,” wrote authors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman.
Proven candidates
Two Democratic candidates who won statewide elections in the Republican-leading states of Ohio and Alaska boost Democrats’ chances there.
In the Buckeye State, former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking a return for a fourth term in a favorable Democratic year after Republican Bernie Moreno ousted him two years ago in a cycle dominated by the Republican Party. Brown will face Republican Senator Jon Husted in the fall, who never won election to the seat but was named to succeed current Vice President JD Vance after the 2024 election.
And former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, who won a special election in 2022 to become the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House in half a century, is challenging incumbent Dan Sullivan.
Questions in Maine, Michigan
The forecaster did not change his toss-up rating for Maine, the only Republican-held Senate seat contested this year in a state that Trump lost in 2024 and was considered one of the best chances for Democrats to gain momentum in the Senate earlier in the cycle.
Political newcomer and Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner won the Democratic primary on June 9 after his main opponent, Gov. Janet Mills, suspended her campaign. But some experts question his strength in a general election after more personal scandals were reported between Mills’ departure and the day of the primary.
Thursday’s Crystal Ball article compared Platner to frail Republican candidates who would likely cost GOP seats in the favorable election years of 2010 and 2022.
The Maine race “features an embattled Democratic candidate, veteran Graham Platner, an anti-establishment candidate who could end up being Democrats’ answer to weak, outsider GOP candidates from the Tea Party era (and more recently, the 2022 midterms) who have cost Republicans winning races,” they wrote.
The authors also said the quality of Democratic candidates will be a key factor in Michigan’s open seat.
They said the race will likely remain in toss-up status at least until the Aug. 4 primary.
Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed is leading in the three-way Democratic race in some recent polls, but is faring worst against the Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers. According to forecasts, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens appears to be the strongest Democratic candidate in the general election.
